Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts) Wed Jan 15, 2020, 11:51 AM Jan 2020

Polling data in early states as of late this morning (January 15):

FiveThirtyEight averages:

Iowa:

Biden 20.1
Warren 15.0
Buttigieg 17.4
Sanders 20.0

Biden ahead by 0.1

New Hampshire:

Biden 21.7
Warren 15.9
Buttigieg 13.2*
Sanders 20.1

Biden ahead by 1.6

Nevada:

Biden 23.2
Warren 14.1*
Buttigieg 6.8*
Sanders 19.4

Biden ahead by 3.8

South Carolina:

Biden 35.9
Warren 11.1*
Buttigieg 4.7*
Sanders 14.3*
Steyer 9.8*

Biden ahead by 21.6

* Below the 15% cutoff for delegates

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

5 replies

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Highlight:

Polling data in early states as of late this morning (January 15): (Original Post) George II Jan 2020 OP

Your math on Iowa is wrong. JoeOtterbein Jan 2020 #1

K&R TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #2

15% is the cut off for per district, not an aggregate for the state. crazytown Jan 2020 #3

Generally I include a disclaimer of sorts to the effect of "based on states' district rules".... George II Jan 2020 #4

It is highly misleading crazytown Jan 2020 #5

JoeOtterbein

(7,702 posts)

1. Your math on Iowa is wrong.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 11:53 AM

Jan 2020

Should be Biden +.1%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

TexasTowelie

(112,558 posts)

2. K&R

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 11:53 AM

Jan 2020

Correction needed for Iowa though as to Biden's margin.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

3. 15% is the cut off for per district, not an aggregate for the state.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 11:57 AM

Jan 2020

George II knows better, but keeps posting it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

4. Generally I include a disclaimer of sorts to the effect of "based on states' district rules"....

Reply to crazytown (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 12:15 PM

Jan 2020

...omitted that this time, and probable elsewhere too at times.

Each state has slightly different rules - some have state-wide (at large) delegates and district delegates, some have a different mix. But a good "rule of thumb" is that a candidate needs to get 15% to get delegates. Occasionally a candidate who doesn't get 15% state-wide will get 15% in a district and get a delegate, but it's not common.

This site has a full explanation of the delegates in each state.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Del.phtml

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

5. It is highly misleading

Reply to George II (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 12:17 PM

Jan 2020

as you know., particularly in states like SC where there are heavily white and heavily black districts.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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