Amy K won the Debate. just not the night.

It may not be enough to matter But...

The superficial analysis of debates is of course the norm as an event it is seen as a contest. But there are dynamics of the race and the combinations of the interplay between the others and the Lanes that have developed that need to be considered.

The one thing that has become clear this cycle is that the old lanes in the party have reasserted themselves. This was masked since 2004 as we had to few candidates actually in a position to win and that had clear ideological differences. While 2016 seems like a clear divide there was a lot of anti-Clinton built in to take a real reference point. But since the Fall these old lanes have reasserted themselves so any analysis of the debate must account for that.

So I'll start out with the "Progressive" lane. With Steyer making a clear choice to be the Billionaire in that lane it now is him, Warren, and Sanders. Warren's polling had stabilized but at the expense of her cross lane appeal. A lot of that had migrated to Buttigieg and while that trend is over it was damaging. It forced the general narrative to be more of a Warren v Sanders then a Warren as consensus. The effect of that was to limit her appeal and narrow it towards only the progressive wing. Last night and all that surrounded it did more to freeze any coming together of the progressive lane then it specifically helped Warren. There is just now a bit more animosity that will depress their caucus totals. Even at the margins that will play as they are both to close to 15% that the movement of Sanders to Warren and Warren to Sanders will be depressed in those areas where the fall short. Because Sanders has the more passionately devoted base it is likely to actually her Warren on caucus night more then Sanders. It is however enough to perhaps deny Sanders the "win".

In the "Moderate" lane we have Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg. While they all had fine nights there seemed to be little to distinguish them at first look. But Buttigieg had by far his worse outing and with his declining polling that is not good. While he did fine, he didn't buff his fading shiny object. Biden likewise did well enough, but has never really managed to put to rest any of the doubts associated with him. The narrative is as it has always been, "he survived another one", "he did enough". That maybe enough to maintain but in no way advance or even solidify.

Klobuchar made a specific caucus play however, very Iowa and Midwest centric. Constantly going back to Iowa tinged specific examples. Both attacking Trump and downplaying the progressive policies as unattainable near term. While that may turn off the more progressive wing it doesn't the moderates when coupled with her shorter term and more achievable specifics. She took control of the Moderate position on Health care by treating the public option as a given and then moving on to specifics. Even more then that she brought up one of the most important and neglected health and economic concerns, that of Elder Care. I really don't think people understand how important that was.

Klobuchar is the only candidate that is in the position to play for third and that is what she did and with Buttigieg fading it is a good play.