Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumCNN: This Democratic electorate is perfect for Joe Biden
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/22/politics/joe-biden-cnn-poll/index.html1) Almost 6 in 10 Democrats (57%) said they wanted the "Democratic Party [to] nominate a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump," while just 35% said they preferred a candidate show "shared" their views on major issues. (Back in December, only 47% prioritized a nominee who could beat Trump.)
2) Almost 6 in 10 (58%) said they would rather a presidential nominee "advocate for policies that have a good chance of becoming law, even if the changes they make aren't as big," while just 36% said they would opt for a nominee who would "advocate for policies that would result in big changes, even if they have a lower chance of becoming law."
If you believe that the fight in the Democratic race is, at the moment, between pragmatic, centrist solutions and radical change, then the desire of the electorate for a winner and its desire for more incremental change with the best chance of becoming law suggests that Biden is sitting pretty.
Which is, admittedly, at odds with the horserace findings in this same poll: Sen. Bernie Sanders 27%, Biden 24%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren 14%, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg 11%. That marks the first time in CNN polling on the 2020 Democratic race that Biden did not hold a solo lead.
So, what gives? Honest answer: I'm not totally sure. Educated guess: What the CNN poll shows is a statistical dead heat between Sanders and Biden.
But projecting forward -- assuming the Democratic electorate stays this pragmatic -- it appears as though the Biden message will ultimately resonate more strongly than the Sanders one.
-snip-
This is something I pointed out in my OP about the CNN poll this morning:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287438748
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,877 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(49,060 posts)2) Almost 6 in 10 (58%) said they would rather a presidential nominee "advocate for policies that have a good chance of becoming law, even if the changes they make aren't as big," while just 36% said they would opt for a nominee who would "advocate for policies that would result in big changes, even if they have a lower chance of becoming law."
If you believe that the fight in the Democratic race is, at the moment, between pragmatic, centrist solutions and radical change, then the desire of the electorate for a winner and its desire for more incremental change with the best chance of becoming law suggests that Biden is sitting pretty.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)be the nominee. we are so fucked.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(49,060 posts)falling for big promises that have little chance of ever becoming reality.
Warren supporters tend to be more informed than Sanders supporters, but IMO they're too easily impressed by detailed plans that also have very little chance of becoming law.
Most voters want to see progress, but they're also aware that politicians who over-promise usually can't deliver.
They'd rather have some progress than none at all.
They'd rather have a candidate who can beat Trump but doesn't agree with them on all issues than one who's in perfect sync with them but has less chance of beating Trump.
The closer we get to actual voting, the more realism will matter, rather than wishful thinking.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FloridaBlues
(4,009 posts)Let's move on super Tuesday than polls will look a lot different. Hoping for unity to start soon after that. My hope anyway.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden