Democratic Primaries

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts) Fri Jan 24, 2020, 04:13 PM Jan 2020

I do not like the fact Chump is edging up, even in good polls.

I do not like the fact Chump is edging up, even in even good polls:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

Emerson is garbage* regardless of their high rating. ABC-WAPO is legit.

If Chump's approval is at 45% among likely voters on 11/3/2020 I like our chances. With every point above 45% I get a little more concerned. Chump was at 44%/45% approval when we crushed it in the mid terms.

I hope these numbers are outliers.

2020 is not going to be a cake walk.

*

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

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I do not like the fact Chump is edging up, even in good polls. (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2020 OP

This was why many of us opposed impeachment; he gets to look like the persecuted one LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #1

On what basis is Emerson "garbage"? brooklynite Jan 2020 #2

Because it's an IVR poll supplemented by a MTurk panel DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2020 #3

Don't worry too much yet. judeling Jan 2020 #4

The electorate is getting more polarized if that's even conceivable. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2020 #5

LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)

1. This was why many of us opposed impeachment; he gets to look like the persecuted one

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 04:19 PM

Jan 2020

Lots of folks here ridiculed the idea that it would help him in the polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

brooklynite

(94,834 posts)

2. On what basis is Emerson "garbage"?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 04:20 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)

3. Because it's an IVR poll supplemented by a MTurk panel

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 04:22 PM

Jan 2020

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

judeling

(1,086 posts)

4. Don't worry too much yet.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 04:24 PM

Jan 2020

We are at the point where internal divisions are at the highest. As candidates get eliminated and the primaries move on the faction will come together internally and then come together totally and those numbers will widen again.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)

5. The electorate is getting more polarized if that's even conceivable.

Reply to judeling (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 04:27 PM

Jan 2020

I am referring primarily to Chump's approval numbers. They are largely independent of what's going on in our primaries. The data suggest if you approve of his job you want him to stay. If you disapprove of his job you want him removed.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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