Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts) Mon Jan 27, 2020, 06:36 PM Jan 2020

538's latest forecast of delegate totals: Biden 1,619. Sanders 1,265.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

43 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538's latest forecast of delegate totals: Biden 1,619. Sanders 1,265. (Original Post) highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

After Super Tuesday will tell the tale still_one Jan 2020 #1

Agreed Oldest_Millenial Jan 2020 #2

Biden's lead down from over 500 last week. Now 354. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #3

KR! Cha Jan 2020 #4

Can't we all squirecam Jan 2020 #5

Ouch! That doesn't jibe with what we saw earlier today. BTW, that's an interesting page... George II Jan 2020 #6

I've been posting a link to that page. When one starts scrolling thru all states and territories Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #9

And this is just out of the first 4...wait until we see ST... Go Joe!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #14

Those delegate estimates will change greatly after the first four states weigh in ritapria Jan 2020 #7

I think you are absoltely right. A lot is weighing on the IA results. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #8

You really think the people in IA are so influential that voters are going to change their minds??? Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #10

Polling suggests Biden supporters are not as set with their candidates as Bernie folks are Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #17

Nope!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #22

K Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #23

People change their minds constantly, especially in the face of media hype. Kentonio Jan 2020 #43

Sanders needed a big win. Biden didn't. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #12

I will be soooo glad when bernie goes home to VT!!!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #13

You and me both...I can't even listen anymore ...turn TV off when he is on...when you celebrate a Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #16

I'm afraid you may very well be disappointed. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #20

Bernie can't win Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #24

Well if W's speechwriter says so... Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #26

As I said like him or not he nails it!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #28

He's a right wing Republican. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #30

Again like him or hate him he writes for The Atlantic not a right wing rag Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #39

That's looking like less the case as time goes on Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #18

I don't think Sanders has a chance to win the primary...I really don't. He doesn't have enough AA Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #21

Latest polling suggests he may. But I'll let your believe what you want until after the primary :) Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #25

if You want to think that that's up to you. Don't look at the 538 page including all the states Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #27

I'm looking forward to your vote for Bernie in the General Election. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #29

Sure!! SC is the bellwether for the AA vote..as SC goes so does the country for the AA voting block Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #31

He's closing the gap pretty quickly. Yesterday folks were saying Biden was ahead by more than 500 Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #32

He has a ceiling...as mentioned in post 21.he will not be able to compete come ST Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #34

He has a high floor, and no ceiling. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #35

Out of 57 states and territories sanders wins 13, Biden 44..come again??!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #37

He is not closing the gap with the AA voters!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #38

After he celebrated Rogan's endorsement? Good luck with that. No, Sanders is putting his Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #42

+10000000000 Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #11

K&R! Sloumeau Jan 2020 #15

You go, Joe! emmaverybo Jan 2020 #19

What's interesting is that of the 57 states/territories, Sanders will win only 13, Biden 44. George II Jan 2020 #33

Thank you!! I hadn't actually counted them up. I knew it was bigly lopsided for Biden Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #36

Yep. Scurrilous Jan 2020 #41

K&R Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #40

still_one

(92,479 posts)

1. After Super Tuesday will tell the tale

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 06:38 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Oldest_Millenial

(61 posts)

2. Agreed

Reply to still_one (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 06:43 PM

Jan 2020

>40% of the delegates will have been awarded by that point

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

3. Biden's lead down from over 500 last week. Now 354.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 06:43 PM

Jan 2020

GO BERNIE!!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Cha

(297,877 posts)

4. KR!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 06:44 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

squirecam

(2,706 posts)

5. Can't we all

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 06:47 PM

Jan 2020

Just vote already...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

6. Ouch! That doesn't jibe with what we saw earlier today. BTW, that's an interesting page...

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 06:47 PM

Jan 2020

Check the individual states:

Iowa: Biden 12.7 delegates, Sanders 12.7 delegates, Buttigieg 8.3 delegates, Warren 5.4 delegates, Others 1.9 delegates
New Hampshire: Biden 5.4 delegates, Sanders 8.8 delegates, Buttigieg 5.7 delegates, Warren 3.1 delegates, Others 0.9 delegates
Nevada: Biden 11.9 delegates, Sanders 13.3 delegates, Buttigieg 4.0 delegates, Warren 5.2 delegates, Others 1.4 delegates
South Carolina: Biden 26.5 delegates, Sanders 15.6 delegates, Buttigieg 4.4 delegates, Warren 5.4 delegates, Others 2.2 delegates

Overall: Biden 56.6, Sanders 50.4, Buttigieg 22.4, Warren 19.1, Others 6.4

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

9. I've been posting a link to that page. When one starts scrolling thru all states and territories

Reply to George II (Reply #6)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:13 PM

Jan 2020

It’s pretty much a no brainer

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

14. And this is just out of the first 4...wait until we see ST... Go Joe!!

Reply to George II (Reply #6)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:22 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

7. Those delegate estimates will change greatly after the first four states weigh in

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 06:58 PM

Jan 2020

For example , if Joe wins Iowa he probably has the nomination wrapped up ...If Bernie wins Iowa and Joe finishes a weak 2nd or third third in Iowa , Bernie will win NH , and probably NV as well , and become the strong favorite to win the nomination … Iowa is huge … Ignore the Iowa Polls -including the Much touted DMR Poll.... (They predicted Trump would defeat Cruz by 5%- he lost by 3%) …. It's nearly impossible to poll a Caucus State ….I am optimistic that Bernie will carry Iowa - but I was optimistic that Hillary would defeat Trump …...We will find out exactly 7 days from now …

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

8. I think you are absoltely right. A lot is weighing on the IA results.

Reply to ritapria (Reply #7)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:08 PM

Jan 2020

Keeping it a tie or better for Bernie will work in his advantage though, only because he has the most solid core support and caucuses are all about persuasion.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

10. You really think the people in IA are so influential that voters are going to change their minds???

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #8)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:16 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

17. Polling suggests Biden supporters are not as set with their candidates as Bernie folks are

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #10)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:54 PM

Jan 2020

Why do you think these numbers are changing so quickly in Bernie's favor?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

22. Nope!!

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #17)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:10 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

23. K

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #22)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:10 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)

43. People change their minds constantly, especially in the face of media hype.

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #10)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:21 AM

Jan 2020

Whoever wins Iowa gets a big media boost, and that's just fact.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

12. Sanders needed a big win. Biden didn't.

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #8)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:18 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

13. I will be soooo glad when bernie goes home to VT!!!!

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #12)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:20 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

16. You and me both...I can't even listen anymore ...turn TV off when he is on...when you celebrate a

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #13)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:42 PM

Jan 2020

guy who calls Gay people child molesters...and you are running as a Democrat...I can't forgive that. He is better than Trump so I vote for Sanders in a general...but never a primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

20. I'm afraid you may very well be disappointed.

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #16)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:59 PM

Jan 2020

But you'll come on board the Bernie bus as soon as he clenches the nomination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

24. Bernie can't win

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #20)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:10 PM

Jan 2020

Link to tweet

?s=21

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

26. Well if W's speechwriter says so...

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #24)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:12 PM

Jan 2020

It must be true!!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

28. As I said like him or not he nails it!!

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #26)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:16 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

30. He's a right wing Republican.

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #28)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:17 PM

Jan 2020

Of course he is going to hate Bernie.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

39. Again like him or hate him he writes for The Atlantic not a right wing rag

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #30)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:32 PM

Jan 2020

He lays out all the facts one by one. He doesn’t hate anyone.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

18. That's looking like less the case as time goes on

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #12)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 07:54 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

21. I don't think Sanders has a chance to win the primary...I really don't. He doesn't have enough AA

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #18)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:09 PM

Jan 2020

support.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

25. Latest polling suggests he may. But I'll let your believe what you want until after the primary :)

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #21)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:11 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

27. if You want to think that that's up to you. Don't look at the 538 page including all the states

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #25)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:15 PM

Jan 2020

And territories..there’s no chance for your guy can win

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

29. I'm looking forward to your vote for Bernie in the General Election.

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #27)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:16 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

31. Sure!! SC is the bellwether for the AA vote..as SC goes so does the country for the AA voting block

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #29)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:18 PM

Jan 2020

538 SC as of today
Biden 36.6
Sanders 16.3

NO dem candidate has ever won without this vital voting block

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

32. He's closing the gap pretty quickly. Yesterday folks were saying Biden was ahead by more than 500

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #31)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:20 PM

Jan 2020

delegates when he was really only ahead by 350. Excited to be where it will see at tomorrow!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

34. He has a ceiling...as mentioned in post 21.he will not be able to compete come ST

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #32)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:24 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

35. He has a high floor, and no ceiling.

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #34)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:26 PM

Jan 2020

Biden is the one with the ceiling and very soft support.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

37. Out of 57 states and territories sanders wins 13, Biden 44..come again??!!

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #35)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:28 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

38. He is not closing the gap with the AA voters!!

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #32)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 08:29 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

42. After he celebrated Rogan's endorsement? Good luck with that. No, Sanders is putting his

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #25)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 05:33 AM

Jan 2020

eggs in the disaffected white voter's basket to make up for the AA support he failed to win. I don't think it will work. And of course, it will cost him other voters as well. My daughter is Gay, and my LGBTQ feeds are full of outraged people who are furious with Sanders, and they vote.

My daughter cried when she heard Sanders had celebrated Rogan's endorsement...she viewed it as a betrayal. She is in college to be a teacher and how do you suppose the Rogan meme that Gay people are child molesters makes her feel? She was a staunch Sander's supporter in 16. She convinced me to vote for Sanders in the Ohio primary in 16.

This year she supported Warren. Although, that had softened the last couple of weeks...but she won't support Sanders now and it hurt her...she is not alone either from what I can see. Isn't it enough that the right hates my daughter and in many cases wants her dead without having the people she trusted and believed in support a guy (Rogan) who encourages others to hate her?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden