Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumEveryone is raptly focused on the first four primary events. Bloomberg is not.
Something is happening in other states that vote later, beginning on March 3. A new primary poll for Missouri shows what might be happening. The Scout poll shows Joe Biden leading with 39%. That's not all that surprising, but who is in second place in that poll might surprise a lot of people. It's Mike Bloomberg, with 14% of the poll subjects favoring him.
Where's Bernie Sanders? He's in fifth place in that poll, garnering only 7%.
While most candidates have been laser-focused on Iowa and New Hampshire, Bloomberg has been running ads on a very heavy schedule in states with later primaries. Those ads are appearing during the evening news hours on ABC, NBC, CBS and on some cable networks, and they're running without any competition from other candidates.
If you haven't seen any of the Bloomberg ads, you should know that they are very, very professionally produced and take strong hits against Trump, while promoting classic Democratic values. They're excellent campaign ads, running in Super Tuesday states almost non-stop, and in states with even later primaries on a regular basis.
Bloomberg isn't challenging Biden so much, but his ad budget is being used to move him up in voter preference in all those later states. He has completely ignored the first four primary events, and is focused on states that offer the potential of giving him delegates in larger numbers.
Check out the Scout poll in Missouri:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Missouri_Scout_Remington_MO_Dem_Jan_2020.pdf
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dalton99a
(81,637 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,338 posts)his own candidacy in the primary race. They're way more general and target Trump. He has said that, if he doesn't win the nomination, he will continue advertising right up to the General Election.
Perhaps there is a cabinet position for him in the Biden administration? I can see that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,809 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,809 posts)Some still believe that the winner will somehow be propelled to victory. I highly doubt individual voters are truly influenced.
Good for Bloomberg... Id be fine with him if he were the nominee
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,338 posts)We're going to see several candidates who are not polling well drop out after Iowa and New Hampshire. Their supporters will move to other candidates, and the field will be reduced. Then, there's a sort of psychological value to doing well in the early primaries. However, even if you add up all four states, the number of delegates they send to the convention is pretty small.
They don't matter much in terms of who gets the nomination. They matter only in keeping candidates in the race and giving a couple of them bragging rights. They can also affect campaign finances, since donors will tend to drop away from candidates who do not perform well in those early primaries.
This year, however, the Super Tuesday primaries, which happen a month after Iowa, include more states than ever and even some of the largest states with the biggest delegations to the convention. In the past, Super Tuesday primaries weren't really in the larger states. Those came later. But, this year more states have been added to that date, including Minnesota, my adopted state.
Bloomberg, who announced late, simply didn't bother with the first four states, but ramped up his campaign in the Super Tuesday states, advertising during a time when nobody else was advertising. It seems to be working.
As for voting for him in the GE, sure. I'll vote for whoever the nominee turns out to be. Always.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
getagrip_already
(14,891 posts)The first 3 states won't amount to a hill of beans in difference between the candidates. They will come out with a paltry tie of delegates.
But on super tuesday, that will change. texas alone could wipe out a number of candidates. And while there are a lot of delegates in california, no single candidate is going to get a lions share.
So ignoring the early states makes sense. Especially if you are focusing on dem gains in the general. It will be interesting to see if he turns some fire directly on bernie though; that's the one candidate he doesn't want to see on the ticket.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,338 posts)That appears to be his strategy. Other effects of his campaign will sort themselves out.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopbush
(24,397 posts)because it could well happen.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
flamingdem
(39,332 posts)He's not strong there
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,338 posts)Now, think about this: Who would Bloomberg endorse when he drops out of the race, later on in the primary season?
The AA vote will go to Biden. Half of the youth vote will go to Sanders. Bloomberg will have his own followers.
It's an easy thing to predict, really.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,338 posts)In fact, it's highly unlikely to happen. However, Bloomberg is running a strategic type of campaign and investing in places that matter. He's skipping the places that don't.
Just watch. He's going to pass Warren. He's going to pass Buttigieg. He's going to be one of the three surviving candidates after Super Tuesday. The rest will be done and have to drop out. Biden, Sanders, and Bloomberg. There are your survivors. You just haven't been paying attention to the larger, national picture.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden