Democratic Primaries

RandySF

(59,473 posts) Tue Jan 28, 2020, 11:07 AM Jan 2020

Iowa Really Is a Toss Up

Jonathan Bernstein: “The FiveThirtyEight average has Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden tied for first (Sanders has a 0.1% advantage). But the most important point made by the FiveThirtyEight analysts is over at their projection page: “Joe Biden is forecasted to win an average of 28% of the vote in Iowa. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 44% of the vote.” Plug in Sanders, and the same results come back. Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have similar, although slightly lower, ranges. In other words, it’s plausible that those four candidates could finish in any order at all. It also wouldn’t be surprising if one or two of them finish below Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, although she could also finish below several of the others if she winds up at the bottom of her likely range.”

“The FiveThirtyEight model is telling us something important. When there are lots of candidates, and lots of voters who like most or all of them, the history is clear: Large swings from the polls to the final results are possible in Iowa, even in the final week.”

https://politicalwire.com/2020/01/28/iowa-really-is-a-toss-up/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

12 replies

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Highlight:

Iowa Really Is a Toss Up (Original Post) RandySF Jan 2020 OP

I have to hope that people will realize how important beating the orange menace is redstatebluegirl Jan 2020 #1

Ground game, ground game, ground game... brooklynite Jan 2020 #2

Don't be to sure about that judeling Jan 2020 #4

I base this on personal observation from inside Iowa brooklynite Jan 2020 #5

Good to hear judeling Jan 2020 #6

The biggest surprise in Iowa results, I predict, will be... at140 Jan 2020 #3

Yang hasn't been higher than 5% in Iowa in any poll brooklynite Jan 2020 #7

correct, but Yang could end up with 10 points at140 Jan 2020 #10

In other words, he loses and gets no delegates. brooklynite Jan 2020 #11

I heard from TV talking heads, at140 Jan 2020 #12

Given its demographics, IA is Bernie's to win. Or lose. LanternWaste Jan 2020 #8

In the end it will be Wellstone ruled Jan 2020 #9

redstatebluegirl

(12,265 posts)

1. I have to hope that people will realize how important beating the orange menace is

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 11:19 AM

Jan 2020

over some kind of purity test. We MUST beat this guy into the ground, we can't have a small victory. We need a candidate that can win down ballot because if we win the White House and lose the House and Senate we still lose.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

brooklynite

(94,807 posts)

2. Ground game, ground game, ground game...

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 11:21 AM

Jan 2020

Warren has the best; Buttigieg is second.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

judeling

(1,086 posts)

4. Don't be to sure about that

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #2)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 11:54 AM

Jan 2020

Both Bernie and Klobuchar have been working Iowa for years. While staffing and offices are visible, what they are building on is much less so. The actual on the ground experience in both of their organizations is huge. I'm willing to bet that both will have more and more experienced precinct captains then any other campaigns.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

brooklynite

(94,807 posts)

5. I base this on personal observation from inside Iowa

Reply to judeling (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 12:03 PM

Jan 2020

Klobuchar doesn't have the cash to invest that Warren and Buttigieg do, and she hasn't hit the viability threshold in a single poll since the campaign started. Sanders may have a good team, but I didn't see it operating as smoothly as Warren's did. I think he's relying on base vote loyalty.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

judeling

(1,086 posts)

6. Good to hear

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #5)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 12:11 PM

Jan 2020

From the ground,
We will see very soon.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

at140

(6,110 posts)

3. The biggest surprise in Iowa results, I predict, will be...

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 11:21 AM

Jan 2020

Candidate Yang to the upside. $1000 is a big magnet.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

brooklynite

(94,807 posts)

7. Yang hasn't been higher than 5% in Iowa in any poll

Reply to at140 (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 12:17 PM

Jan 2020

If his free cash was a selling point, I think it would have registered by now.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

at140

(6,110 posts)

10. correct, but Yang could end up with 10 points

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 01:11 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

brooklynite

(94,807 posts)

11. In other words, he loses and gets no delegates.

Reply to at140 (Reply #10)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 01:14 PM

Jan 2020

Then he goes to New Hampshire and gets no delegates.

Then he goes to Nevada and gets no delegates.

Then he goes to South Carolina and gets no delegates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden