Democratic Primaries

beastie boy

(9,505 posts) Tue Jan 28, 2020, 01:56 PM Jan 2020

538: the poll numbers in early states change daily. But most of these changes are within MOE

Today, it's a virtual tie between Biden and Sanders in Iowa and Nevada, and a 5 point advantage for Sanders in NH.

Also, Biden leads Sanders in SC by 20, their respective standings are well within MOA in California and Maine, Biden is tied with Warren in Massachusetts with Sanders a distant third, Biden is 13 points ahead of Sanders in North Carolina, Biden leads Sanders by 8 in Texas, by 5 in Utah and by 13 in Virginia. No recent data is available for the other Super Tuesday states.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

To mangle Mark Twain, the rumors of anyone surging in any race are being greatly exaggerated.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

10 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538: the poll numbers in early states change daily. But most of these changes are within MOE (Original Post) beastie boy Jan 2020 OP

K&R! highplainsdem Jan 2020 #1

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #2

Given its demographics, I still think IA is Bernie's to win. Or lose. LanternWaste Jan 2020 #3

From what I have heard from her supporters and elsewhere, Warren may do better than expected. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #10

The memo has gone out. Bad poll numbers? Do opposite and declare victory. Scurrilous Jan 2020 #4

Bernie does opposite and dog whistle. Scurrilous Jan 2020 #8

Biden ahead in entire polled South. Scurrilous Jan 2020 #5

Biden is losing CA. If he loses TX too, that's it. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #7

But the projections are changing well outside any MOE Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #6

What exactly are you referring to? beastie boy Jan 2020 #9

highplainsdem

(49,045 posts)

1. K&R!

Reply to beastie boy (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 02:01 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Name removed Message auto-removed

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)

3. Given its demographics, I still think IA is Bernie's to win. Or lose.

Reply to beastie boy (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 02:18 PM

Jan 2020

Should he not win (or even if he hits a distant second), that may spell the beginning of his end.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,715 posts)

10. From what I have heard from her supporters and elsewhere, Warren may do better than expected.

Reply to LanternWaste (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 03:37 PM

Jan 2020

She may take votes from Sanders...I noticed the college vote posts where Sanders didn't even get viability and his supporters stormed out...a foreshadowing maybe.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

4. The memo has gone out. Bad poll numbers? Do opposite and declare victory.

Reply to beastie boy (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 02:22 PM

Jan 2020

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

8. Bernie does opposite and dog whistle.

Reply to Scurrilous (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 02:52 PM

Jan 2020

South Carolina, What South Carolina? Bernie Focuses Totally On The Future In Minnesota

<snip>

"Bernie Sanders did not mention his defeat in South Carolina in his first campaign event following the end of that state's primary.

Speaking before a crowd of more than 2,500 in this southeast Minnesota city for 50 minutes, Sanders delivered a standard version of his current stump speech, featuring sharp jabs at Hillary Clinton over Wall Street speaking fees, her speech transcripts, and a vote for the Iraq War.

Sanders spent the day on Saturday outside South Carolina, campaigning at huge rallies in Texas and Minnesota, Super Tuesday states the Sanders campaign hopes will give him a large number of delegates next week.

"There's no way we are going to lose Minnesota," Sanders said to the cheering crowd. "I can see that. You are just too smart."

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeednews/south-carolina-democratic-primary-winner

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

5. Biden ahead in entire polled South.

Reply to beastie boy (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 02:28 PM

Jan 2020

Texas is the closest. Followed by N. Carolina and VA. Most of the rest are a romp.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

7. Biden is losing CA. If he loses TX too, that's it.

Reply to Scurrilous (Reply #5)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 02:51 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

6. But the projections are changing well outside any MOE

Reply to beastie boy (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 02:47 PM

Jan 2020

The projections show Sanders rapidly gaining.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

beastie boy

(9,505 posts)

9. What exactly are you referring to?

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 03:16 PM

Jan 2020

If you have any polling data, I would like to see it. If you are referring to something other than polling data, that would be comparing apples to oranges. But I would like to see it anyway, especially how MOE applies to projections. I am not sure whether it is possible to apply MOE to projections, since they usually calculate the chances of something happening, not the margin of accuracy in a statistical data set.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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