In the long-run, she's going to disappoint.

The current in case in NY is the one to hang our hat on, not the one in FL.

U.S. national security and that of our allies. Reality Winner stole just one classified document and served four years in prison. What would be the comparable prison sentence for the theft of countless boxes??

but, I say NY because it’s already underway, Judge Merchan is a good guy and the presiding judge, the impaneled jury looks pretty solid, Judge Merchan is in complete control of things, and he is conding the trail as though he understands there’s a timeline. DA Bragg was able to get a 34 count indictment, meaning at least one of them will snag Trump (although I really think he’ll be a felon on numerous of them.)

Another thing, I believe Merchan will put Trump in jail before the trail is over. He’s been giving Trump plenty of rope to hang himself on contempt.

Bottom line: Merchan is seeing to it that Trump ends up in jail, even if on a less serious case. The point is to have Trump sidlelined as much as possible for the pendency of the campaign. Jack Smiths two cases wont make that happen before November.

And though he hasn't come right out and said so, TFG's attacks on the judge and especially his daughter are truly unprecedented and completely inappropriate and they have to have affected his opinion of this out-of-control defendant. And he has threatened jail if TFG continues with his usual behavior and being forced to sit there listening to witnesses testify against him is definitely not something he is used to and is bound to set him off.

I also think you're right, that his constant presence in court is bound to sideline him, let alone the gag order which he is bound to violate again. Thanks for your spot-on analysis!