General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Fair warning... [View all]Celerity
(43,553 posts)Here in Sweden, with basically no lock-down and the all the under-high school level schools never closed we have had one death under 20, and that was a 4 year old a couple months back with multiple comorbidities. Zero deaths in the 5 years old to 20yo age group, and a total of 26 deaths under 40 years of age (half the entire population). 26 deaths out of over 4 million people. 1 per 154,000 rate. Around 99% of the deaths here have been over 50 years of age, 96% over 60 years of age, 89% over 70 years of age. 68% were over 80yo, 26% of all COVID-19 deaths were over 90 tears of age.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
In the US, due to a lack of testing and asymptomatic, a very conservative number would be 6 million cases. at a 5% death rate that works out to 300,00, not the 130,000 it actually is. I think it is likely that 10 million people in the US have had it, making a mortality rate of around 1.3%, and that rate is massively skewed to the over 45yo cohorts (especially the over 55yo ones.) The US does have a very slightly higher death rate for the under 40yo, under 35yo cohorts than Sweden does, but that is easily explained as the average US citizen is more unhealthy and has poorer healthcare than an average Swede is and does.