Why the VP nominee is likely to be who you think it'll be... [View all]

Surprises just don't happen often in politics. Surprises are rarely done by candidates in position to win - and know they're likely to win.

The last real surprise VP choice was Sarah Palin in 2008. She was not on anyone's radar until mere hours before the announcement. It was a stunning development that was a mastery move by the McCain camp. Not only did it suck the oxygen out of Obama's phenomenal convention acceptance speech the night before, it breathed new life into the struggling campaign. Of course, as we know, Palin was Palin and it turned into a disaster. But on the day McCain announced, a Friday to be exact, it was a home run in the sense it generated the needed buzz and, in many ways, negated any post-convention bounce Obama would see.

It worked in the short-term but it failed in the long-term because of the reason it worked so well: it was a desperate pick that no one saw coming. Because of this, Palin was not properly vetted. She was never simpatico with McCain and completely unfit for the role of Vice President, especially to a candidate who was old like McCain and had battled a cancer scare a few years earlier.

Palin is why campaigns, especially those who are winning, don't make Hail Mary plays for vice-president.

It's also why campaigns don't go completely stealth-mode in selecting the running-mate. Why? Because they want the names floated. They want people out there talking about the potential nominees. It's all a trial balloon. That is something you do not get with keeping the pick completely off the radar. Unless you're 100% desperate - and even then, at least in the internet age, that's unlikely.

In 2016, Mike Pence was generally perceived as the front-runner for the role, at least the closer the announcement. Likewise, Tim Kaine was seen as the front-runner in 2016 for Clinton.

In 2012, Paul Ryan was perceived as a dark-horse early for Romney, but by the time it became evident Romney was going to choose, a month later, Ryan was seen as the favorite.

In 2008, Biden was always on Obama's radar, but the odds just a few days out had the front-runner as, well, Hillary's choice in 2016: Tim Kaine.

Biden, 15-2 odds, Kaine and Bayh had 3-2 odds.

So, Biden's pick was a bit of an upset but not really. He still had the third-best odds to the two younger moderates.

In 2004, according to polls, and the media, Edwards was the proverbial favorite. . Of course, then there was in the infamous New York Post oops where they broke the news that Kerry had selected Dick Gephardt (which, all things considered, was probably the correct pick).

And there you have it - the last few election cycles dominated by the internet age and speculation.

What does this tell us? The next VP is likely to be the person everyone thinks it's going to be - so, congrats Kamala Harris!

But if Biden is looking to get into his Obama groove, maybe it's not Harris ... who, currently, is the front-runner according to bettors. If he does that, congrats Susan Rice (or Val Demings)!

And of course, if he pulls a McCain, which there's really no damn reason to at this point, congrats to - well - Nina Turner!