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Showing Original Post only (View all)Charlie Cook: Don't expect a contested election [View all]
National JournalOn a hundred-odd Zoom meetings, webinars, and conference call speeches that Ive participated in over the past two months, virtual attendees continue to raise the possibility of a contested presidential election, even though the chances of that have been getting smaller all the time. Every day that Trump remains behind in the polls, outspent badly and with the early vote gushing in, the cone of uncertainty narrows, and the odds of such an upset goes down.
Joe Bidens path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraskas 2nd District and Maines 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a skinny Biden win.
A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although dont count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.
The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Bidens lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But thats a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.
Joe Bidens path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraskas 2nd District and Maines 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a skinny Biden win.
A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although dont count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.
The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Bidens lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But thats a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.
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Exactly. I'll finally be able to relax when Joe's hand is on that bible come Jan. 20th
groundloop
Oct 2020
#7
I'm still not totally convinced there wasn't funny business in one or more of those states in 2016
groundloop
Oct 2020
#8
The MSM helped convey that mythology, repeating anything Trump and his minions say without question.
Ford_Prefect
Nov 2020
#32
Every map I see and when I play with the interactive maps, Joe STARTS at 270
NightWatcher
Oct 2020
#13