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(2,406 posts) Sun Nov 1, 2020, 12:33 AM Nov 2020

Kendall Kaut: Why Biden is Going to Win [View all]

Why Biden is Going to Win

By Kendall Kaut

We’re three days from the election, and Joe Biden is going to win. I can hedge and say “Well, we could have a catastrophic polling error,” or “Trump is going to steal the election.” I don’t see either happening. Biden has led since March, and before most of you wake up on November 4th, Biden will be president-elect.

Trump faces too devastating a situation to win. If he wins, the entire polling industry, and quite possibly empiricism itself, would be in a nearly unfathomable crisis.

The easiest explanation is that Trump barely beat a terrible candidate in 2016. Trump is less popular than he was in 2016, Biden is more popular than Clinton, and the electorate is less hospitable to Trump than it was in 2016.

[A good analysis. Read the rest here: Article]

29 replies

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Kendall Kaut: Why Biden is Going to Win [View all] nsd Nov 2020 OP

Ordinarily, I suspect polling works pretty well-- the poll business has learned a lot since... TreasonousBastard Nov 2020 #1

I've read Turin_C3PO Nov 2020 #2

FANTASTIC piece! Must read and share. Thanks! writes3000 Nov 2020 #3

Great article! MaryMagdaline Nov 2020 #4

Hillary was NOT a terrible candidate Skittles Nov 2020 #5

yup, the shit she faced for decades. Imagine anyone else dealing JI7 Nov 2020 #7

Yeah. Simply calling her a terrible candidate is perpetuating the thirty years of gross defamation Aristus Nov 2020 #8

People just have to use her as example don't they? onetexan Nov 2020 #11

Sorry, but no... regnaD kciN Nov 2020 #13

nope Skittles Nov 2020 #19

She was also competitive in the Primary against Obama who most would consider JI7 Nov 2020 #21

+1. Her favorability ratings were a massive alarm bell that was never acknowledged Arazi Nov 2020 #24

I'd put her on the Supreme Court just to piss the haters off calimary Nov 2020 #16

I would LOVE it if Hillary was given this job... jmowreader Nov 2020 #17

That would be awesome! Lol! ecstatic Nov 2020 #25

Exactly! 2Legit Nov 2020 #10

THIS, DAMMIT!!! calimary Nov 2020 #14

Amen to that DFW Nov 2020 #20

I will add another THIS, DAMMIT!! brer cat Nov 2020 #27

K & R DLCWIdem Nov 2020 #6

I agree with Skittles. love_katz Nov 2020 #9

Excellent article, he covers everything. radius777 Nov 2020 #12

K&R smirkymonkey Nov 2020 #15

Hillary was awesome, and that was her undoing. ucrdem Nov 2020 #18

Hillary or Obama either one could be our Rep in the UN Captain Zero Nov 2020 #22

Hillary would be a GREAT UN rep! ucrdem Nov 2020 #23

Recommended Arazi Nov 2020 #26

K&R. dchill Nov 2020 #28

K&R Blue Owl Nov 2020 #29