General Discussion

More suppression laws will be passed at every level from state level (but affecting federal elections as well) on down. Also the partisan gerrymandering will occur at every level from federal districts on down. Plus we lost seats during the post 2020 Census reapportionment. Even with HR 1 and the John Lewis Act passed, the House is likely gone. Without them, is is likely a Red wave and the Senate is in jeopardy.

Before any of this all, 2022 was shaping up as the Rethugs having around 15 to 20 fewer at-risk House seats than us. Now that is likely closer to 30 less for them.

We have 4 at-risk Senate seats, and 3 are in Rethug Trifecta states that will slam in suppression laws:

Georgia - Warnock

Nevada - Catherine Cortez Masto (Brian Sandoval would be the toughest Rethug to beat, he has said no so far at least)

New Hampshire - Maggie Hassan (her two strongest opponents would probably be Former Senator Kelly Ayotte and especially Governor Sununu, the Rethugs flipped BOTH the State Senate and the State House in 2020 and now hold a Trifecta)

Arizona - Mark Kelly

Vermont - a wild card if Leahy retires and the very popular Rethug Gov Phil Scott runs, although he might go Angus King route, and run as an Indie and caucus with us if he wins


In contrast, wishful projections aside (no we are not going to beat Rand Paul in KY, nor win MO, IN, etc, and FL is going to be hella hard, as is OH, even with Portman retiring)

we have 3 pickup possibilities that are in actual play and not huge stretches

Pennsylvania Open Seat (our best hope) Fetterman is by far our best shot so, IMHO

North Carolina Open Seat (Cheri Beasley is looking more and more like the Dem frontrunner, plus Jeff Jackson is in the mix too) massive wildcard is Lara Trump

Wisconsin Ron Johnson (asshat deluxe, I fucking hate this clown, hope he doesn't run) Mandela Barnes would help drive the most key voters (and the hardest group to get to turn out) in the state, the blacks in Milwaukee (and to a lesser extent, Madison)


the odds of us, as it is a first midterm, plus the voter suppression. gaining a net +2 (so Manchin and Sinema are neutered) are lower than us ending up at 50-50 again or even a net -1, as I think we are in real trouble in all 4 of those seats we have to defend, 2 for sure (AZ is the best for us, then NV) and the only of of the 3 truly possible pickups I feel ok about is PA, with NC a bit less, and WI the hardest, even if asshat Putin shill Johnson runs. WI is so fucking corrupt, as is NC, thank fuck we have Dem Gov in each, although WI has so hamstrung Evers.

Gun to my head atm, I think we lose GA (worst nightmare would be if that idiot yank football player, Herschel Walker runs and beats Warnock as he will draw some black votes I fear simply do to his legendary status) and NH (especially if Sununu runs, and also because of NH Rethugs on a real roll there, a trifecta and can supress now), gain PA, fail to flip in WI, so it comes down to NC to maintain control at 50-50. If Lara Trump runs there, the former guy will drive the QMAGAts to the polls for her, so it will be a shitshow and get really racially nasty, as Beasley is African American.

PA, GA, and NH are the key races to watch. If we lose them all, it could be a long night, a long bad one.