General Discussion

the main drivers I am seeing tossed out there:


1 Inflation. IF it is still in the 6%, 7 % range come October, we are in deep shit. Same for crazy high petrol prices.

2 Extremely poor history for remotely recent first midterms for Dem POTUS's (see 1994 and 2010 for perfect examples) The insurrection CAN, in theory, help switch this, IF the voters pay attention and we do a great job presenting the case as to why the vermin Rethugs are traitors. Also wee need to play up our accomplishments, do better messaging.

3 IF No voter bills are passed (and that looks likely) then the Rethugs will do massive election fraud such as voter suppression and partisan gerrymandering

4 The reapportionment after the 2020 Census hurts us (on net, we will gain in a few states hopefully) in the House, enough to possibly flip it by itself if many of the crazy shite Rethug gerrymanders are upheld.

5 IF No BBB Act is passed (and it is on life support) then Sinema and Manchin will have gutted over 90% of Biden's new spend agenda between the 2 giant infrastructure bills. Only $550 billion out of his original total new spend frameworks of $6.1 trillion will be passed, much of that $550 billion is backloaded past the 2022 midterms) Almost all of his social welfare/human infrastructure items will be binned.

6 The Senate map is not nearly as good as many insist on, especially if not voter bills are passed. We have only 3 truly decent shots at Red to Blue flips, PA (open seat, our best bet), NC (open seat, and atm it is looking a bit worse) and WI (it is flip a coin if that asshat Johnson deciding to run is a good or a bad thing for us). FL and OH are very much heavy lifts, big reaches, and the rest are very likely going to stay Red. IA (soon to be Alabama with corn) is not flipping Blue, for instance. At the same time, we have 4 seats in real risk of flipping to Red. GA, AZ, NH, and NV, The only true break we have has so far is Sununu (who would have very likely defeated Hassan) refusing to run in NH. Watch CO, as even though I rate it pretty solid Blue, but if it ends up close, that is doom for our national chances, and loss there would mean a Red Tsunami is in effect.

7 Biden's popularity is a big input. Atm, he is doing poorly with several extremely key cohorts, the 44yo and under vote, independents, and Latinos. He has somewhat cratered with all 3.



8 Covid, IF it still raging.