General Discussion

The situation's more dynamic and a bit less gloomy that the OP paints.

Tomorrow sees a major meeting of NATO and its allies at Ramstein where more aid is certain to be agreed to culminate a week when large tranches of new weaponry supplies for Ukraine have been announced from a variety of countries.

The log jam over supplies of tanks looks like it may be breaking after the UK announced its supply of Challengers. More long-range artillery - arguably more critical than tanks - is being supplied and of very good quality. Large numbers of Ukrainian troops are being trained in NATO countries and will arrive on the battlefield fresh and well equipped in due course.

The Wagner forces are suffering vast attrition in battle for very few gains. Assessments vary, but thousands of the 50,000 mercenary troops quoted above have been eliminated. Another troll of the Russian prisons to top up their ranks is likely to make scraping the bottom of a barrel look more productive. The toll on the Ukrainains has also been costly, but not in the same ball park.

Russia's domestic politics are increasingly in turmoil, with Putin fearful of Wagner chief Prigozhin, who Putin can't afford to see fail, but whose successes in any military manoeuvres make him more of a leadership threat. The relatively mild weather in most of Europe this winter has defused Putin's blackmail attempts over oil and gas supplies and the rouble's tanking again. Locations in Russia far from the border keep going up in flames or spectacular firework shows for whatever reasons ...

Belarus is very reluctant to get involved directly. Internally, it can't afford the schisms direct involvement in the armed conflict would worsen, and internal dissent would likely grow to an alarming extent for what is an illegitimate regime going though hard economic times. Poland would be very jumpy about any adventures near its borders with Belarus and Ukraine. The land any northern attack on Ukraine in the direction of Lviv would have to navigate has very restricted roads and is generally flooded marshland when it's not frozen.

It's not a rosy picture, but not as doomy as set out above. Couple that with the proven vastly superior military leadership of the Ukrainian forces, and I think some unpleasant surprises are in store for Putin as the year progresses.