The Proud Boys are collapsing: Surprise! Legal consequences do hurt authoritarian movements [View all]

Despite fears that accountability will make MAGA more powerful, a new report shows it weakens the far-right
By AMANDA MARCOTTE
SALON


...............there's one big factor that cannot be overlooked that made 2023 very different from 2022: Proud Boys finally started going to prison for their role in January 6.

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Data from The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project shows that while there was a gradual decline in Proud Boys activity in the first half of 2023, there was a preciptious drop-off in the mid-summer, dwindling to nearly nothing by the end of the year. This concides with the convictions and sentencing of Tarrio and other top Proud Boys. It's highly unlikely that's a coincidence. Instead, it suggests strongly that these high-profile punishments have successfully scared other Proud Boys into retreat.

To many people, this would seem an obvious outcome. Our prison system is supposed to work as deterrence, and certainly the prosecutors argued that's why they sought lengthy sentences that would garner a lot of attention. But there's also no end of pundits these days who are ready to warn that efforts to hold authoritarians to account will only backfire. They declare that the MAGA movement will only grow stronger if the legal system enforces the law as it is written.

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But legal consequences for Trump may not be a boost of confidence in the MAGA movement some believe. MAGA is a fascist movement that worships what they perceive as strength. To them, "strength" is evading consequences for bad actions. When their leaders are held to account, however, that is demoralizing and, crucially, demobilizing for the right.

The data on the Proud Boys, while incomplete, does a good job of showing how this works. Even while their leaders were under indictment, the Proud Boys could tell themselves a story about how they were a mighty force, able to commit crimes in broad daylight without paying the penalty for it. As soon as their leaders went to prison, however, their members beat a fast retreat. They may be yelling at each other on Telegram about all the liberals they want to "trigger," but they aren't as keen anymore on going out in public to start fights. Odds are high that something similar will happen if Trump's aura of invincibility is penetrated by serious consequences, like a criminal conviction. His supporters who currently worship him like a god will be reminded he's just a man — and a whiny one who smells like a butt, at that.

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the rest:
https://www.salon.com/2024/01/11/the-proud-boys-are-collapsing-surprise--legal-consequences-do-hurt-authoritarian-movements/