General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: We may be in trouble [View all]All Mixed Up
(597 posts)The 2020 election was painfully close. I know people will point to the popular vote but that's irrelevant. Biden only won because of 45,000 or so votes across three states: Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.
That's the margin of 2020.
So the question that should be asked is which candidate has lost more support over the last four years?
Certainly neither Biden or Trump have increased their support.
But it does appear Trump has done a better job holding onto his support from four years ago.
Where things get tough for Biden isn't necessarily his losing support to Trump. I don't think he will. But losing support to third party candidates or just to voting.
Most my friends group who voted Biden (even if begrudgingly) in 2020 have vowed not to vote for him in 2024. We've had fights like you, but they won't budge. Biden lost their vote by backing Israel unconditionally (or so they think).
I mention Trump. Their response is that they don't support Trump, either. Even if I point out that not voting Biden indirectly supports Trump, they say it's not their concern. They won't be scared into voting Biden.
It'll be tough to win a lot of these voters over. Still plenty of time but it's why I'm not getting on board with the idea that Biden is going to run away with this election. It'll be close no matter what but he's struggling in states he won last go around and that is going to be tough for him to overcome without shoring up fully those who voted for him in 2020.
If Biden loses just a couple points off his 2020 total to third party candidates, Trump wins without ever expanding his totals from 2020.