General Discussion

And this really ignores what happened between 2016 and 2020.

Biden's biggest gains came from voters who voted Johnson/Stein in 2016 (or didn't plain vote) and then turned around and voted Biden in 2020. In fact, he only won because those voters decided in 2020 that they wouldn't vote third party.

Of those who voted for someone else in 2016 (other than Clinton/Trump), Biden won 60%. Of those who did not vote in 2016, Biden won 58%.

These are by definition fickle voters. Biden was able to win 'em over in 2020 but they've drifted away from him in 2024. It's why, when third party candidates are added, Biden goes from trailing Trump by just 1 point nationally in a head-to-head with just those two, to trailing him by nearly three-points.

It's not a significant difference but remember, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states Hillary lost, Biden only did:

2.37 points better in Wisconsin.

3.52 points better in Michigan.

2.42 points better in Pennsylvania.

Outside Michigan, where he saw his biggest increase in those Blue Wall states, Biden improved essentially two-points on Hillary's total.

Most, if not all, that gain was made by not winning over Trump supporters - but winning over those who voted third party in 2016.

In Wisconsin, Biden won 56% of those who voted for someone else in 2016.

He only won 6% of Trump 2016 voters - but that was negated by the fact Trump won 4% of Hillary 2016 voters.

Biden's biggest challenge, and biggest risk, is not bleeding support to third party candidates.

To put it another way: Trump actually improved his totals in those three states between 2016 and 2020. He won a larger share of the vote in all those states. The only reason it was not enough is because the third party vote went from 5% in Michigan in 2016 to 1.6% in 2020. It went from 6% in Wisconsin in 2016 to 2% in 2020. And it went from 5% in Pennsylvania in 2016 to 1.4% in 2020.

That's the election in all three states right there.

He's going to have to win back those 2016 third party voters who supported him in 2020. Polls say he's not doing it right now.