BTRTN: A Deep Look at the Presidential Race [View all]

Born To Run The Numbers devotes its "March in Review" to a deep dive into the current state of the Presidential race:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/04/btrtn-deep-look-at-presidential-race.html

Excerpts: "While Biden has clear vulnerabilities with respect to his age, immigration, the economy and Gaza, he has made considerable progress in the last month on the first three of them and appears to have begun to develop some electoral momentum...

"But against those issues on which Biden shows vulnerability are a raft that favor the Democrats. First and foremost, the Democrats have a clear election winner with respect to abortion, which in the post-Dobbs era has been the political gift that keeps on giving and rises above all others in terms of driving electoral success. The GOP’s inability to develop a coherent policy, while states and judges zealously plunge ahead with abortion bans, has left GOP candidates grasping at straws in election after election...

"Biden is also advantaged by Trump’s ongoing trials (and tribulations), his extremely dark and violent statements about the state of the country, the way he intends to govern if elected, and the threat to democracy that he poses...

"But the best evidence of a favorable electoral environment for Biden and the Democrats has been their run of electoral success. The Democrats rebounded from the 2016 debacle by winning back the House in 2018, the White House and Senate in 2020, and dramatically overperformed historical expectations in the 2022 midterms, holding the Senate and almost keeping the House. There were also six abortion-related referendums on state ballots in 2022, all won handily by the pro-choice side. And in 2023 and early 2024 the streak has continued..."