Fellow Clinton Supporters: Time for the knock out blow in NC! [View all]

( I was cleaning up favorites and came across this blast from the past greatness thread )


kennetha (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore
Dear Fellow Hillary Supporters:

It's time to pour cash into Hillary's coffers. If we can take him down in Indiana and North Carolina, this thing is essentially over! Hillary is the nominee. The campaign won't trumpet this fact. They want the Obama forces to keep crowing about how they are going to win North Carolina.

But look at the latest poll from Survey USA from North Carolina. It contains a hidden mesage. 5% have already voted. Obama supposedly leads among these early voters by 12pts. 47 - 35% with 2% going for other. That leaves 15% "undecided." But unless NC has a funny electoral system, undecided isn't on the ballot.

What does that mean, you ask? And why is it good news for Hilary?

My guess is that it means that HIllary's support is probably under-reported. She may even lead among those who have already voted 50-47. It may even mean that Obama support among likely voters is overstated and that HIllary's is understated.

Even with that Survey USA has Obama ahead by only 9 pts with a relatively large sampling error of 3.7%. That means Obama's 9 pt lead could be as large as almost 17% or as small as 1%. (17 and 1% are both extreme, but they are equiprobable.)

But the dirty little secret is that a narrow victory is not absolutely out of the question for Hillary.

Let's pour on the dough and see what happens. Since Obama has HUGE expectations, a loss wouldn't be devestating for us (as long as we win Indiana.) But if we pull out even a narrow win, Obama is absolute TOAST. The superdelegates will abandon him and the nomination will be Hillary's.

The media is too stupid and in the tank to even consider the possibility. Obama's supporters are too drunk on their kool-aid to see it too.

So let's go, team. Pour on the cash -- I just gave another 200, to take my total over 1K. Let's steal this state and shut Obama down.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5668383