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ericson00

(2,707 posts)

23. I've seen the tidbit

Thu Jul 23, 2015, 11:30 PM

Jul 2015

Last edited Fri Jul 24, 2015, 12:38 AM - Edit history (1)

what you're citing:

"Ross Perot’s presence on the 1992 presidential ballot did not change the outcome of the election, according to an analysis of the second choices of Perot supporters.

The analysis, based on exit polls conducted by Voter Research & Surveys (VRS) for the major news organizations, indicated that in Perot’s absence, only Ohio would have have shifted from the Clinton column to the Bush column. This would still have left Clinton with a healthy 349-to-189 majority in the electoral college.

And even in Ohio, the hypothetical Bush “margin” without Perot in the race was so small that given the normal margin of error in polls, the state still might have stuck with Clinton absent the Texas billionaire."

A race in the margin of error is as statistically good as an exact tie.

The idea that Clinton woulda won by a larger margin is from the fact that the portion of the race Perot was gone for saw Clinton hold 10-12 point leads on Bush Sr. while he Bush still polled at 37-39% of the vote in a 2-way contest.

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FINALLY. Thank you, Rachel Maddow, for setting the record straight about Ross Perot in 1992. [View all] StevieM Jul 2015 OP

Bill would have had 60% of the popular vote if Perot hadn't re-entered the race n/t virtualobserver Jul 2015 #1

He was up by 15 to 20 points when Perot re-entered the race with a month to go. StevieM Jul 2015 #2

I don't think they would have closed....Bush was very unpopular. virtualobserver Jul 2015 #3

I agree that Bush was never going to do well, let alone win. When I say the polls would have closed StevieM Jul 2015 #12

"He'll be important if we accomplish our goal, which is to draw even with Clinton," ericson00 Jul 2015 #13

Bush Sr. was as popular in 1992 as Jimmy Carter (!) was in 1980 ericson00 Jul 2015 #4

Welcome to DU! riderinthestorm Jul 2015 #19

definitely at least 55%+ ericson00 Jul 2015 #5

I think Perot may have gotten some votes from very conservative Democrats, but not centrist or merrily Jul 2015 #26

That is not what the exit polls told us. And I did know of centrist Democrats who voted for Perot. StevieM Jul 2015 #29

No. I will watch the video at some point. merrily Jul 2015 #30

Absolutely ProudToBeBlueInRhody Jul 2015 #6

USUALLY the history books were written by the winners. I guess that was pre-FAUX News. Gidney N Cloyd Jul 2015 #7

Read My Lips sub.theory Jul 2015 #8

Media Matters needs to cover the Perot myth-NOW ericson00 Jul 2015 #9

I remember his charts and what he said about that giant sucking sound udbcrzy2 Jul 2015 #10

clearly, seeing that NAFTA was gonna happen anyway ericson00 Jul 2015 #11

Yes, I recorded those half hour television programs he had on. And thought abou it. freshwest Jul 2015 #17

While I know its probably not the most popular paper here, ericson00 Jul 2015 #14

Rachel did a good job on this story Gothmog Jul 2015 #15

now all that needs to happen ericson00 Jul 2015 #16

What is still somewhat amazing is that Snobblevitch Jul 2015 #18

Or how Bush let it slide so badly ericson00 Jul 2015 #20

I don't think Clinton was able to predict the downslide of Snobblevitch Jul 2015 #24

there was the early 90's recession ericson00 Jul 2015 #25

True...it was a push most likely. Drunken Irishman Jul 2015 #21

I've seen the tidbit ericson00 Jul 2015 #23

I knew several Democrats who voted for Perot over Clinton aint_no_life_nowhere Jul 2015 #22

By the ten minute mark she was driving me crazy however Tom Rinaldo Jul 2015 #27

I understand your sentiments, but for me it was fabulous. I have waited years to hear someone StevieM Jul 2015 #28

That she did, and there's much to be said in favor of that n/t Tom Rinaldo Jul 2015 #35

Anybody else remember your liberal friends being enthusiastic about Perot? Paladin Jul 2015 #31

don't like data? Just like "I'm not a scientist" ericson00 Jul 2015 #32

Actually, I do remember some liberals voting for Perot. StevieM Jul 2015 #34

I used to work with Carolyn Perot's husband Horse with no Name Jul 2015 #33

On edit -- never mind got the names mixed up. JonLP24 Jul 2015 #37

I haven't seen it JonLP24 Jul 2015 #36