PA 2024 Primary Results: Slightly Closer Look (Good News) [View all]

Was looking at some interesting county results I thought I'd share. As others have said, Dems should be more comfortable than Repubs. Long post, sorry.

[link:https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov|

Dem State Wide

Biden: 941,516 (93.17%) Phillips: 68,999 (6.83%)

Senate Race (unopposed)

Casey: 1,011,430

Repub State Wide

Trump: 790,476 (83.38%) Halley: 157,581 (16.62%)

Senate (unopposed)

McCormick: 874,035 (Note that McCormick got less votes than tfg & Halley combined; a lot of blanks for this slot)

Comment: PA has a closed primary so only registered Dems and Repubs can vote. There is a large pool of independent voters who we can not survey via primary results. Two takeaways: 1) More Dems than Repubs turned out (so maybe Dem base is more motivated?). 2) There's over twice as many Repubs who didn't vote for tfg than Dems who didn't vote for Biden.

Some County Results (largest to smallest)

Philadelphia (Strong Dem)
Biden: 141,228 (94.24%) Phillips: 8,632 (5.76%)
Trump: 14,546 (81.65% ) Halley: 3,269 (18.35%)
Bucks (Slight Repub Lean)
Biden: 55,750 (94.91%) Phillips: 2,990 (5.09%)
Trump: 49,055 (80.88%) Halley: 11,593 (19.12%)
York (Strong Repub)
Biden: 23,163 (93.38%) Phillips: 1,641 (6.62%)
Trump: 36,534 (84.00%) Halley: 6,958 (16.00%)
Bultler (Strong Repub)
Biden: 10,980 (90.91%) Phillips: 1,098 (9.09%)
Trump: 19,094 (84.48%) Halley: 3,507 (15.52%)
Clearfield (Strong Repub)
Biden: 2,704 (86.78%) Phillips: 412 (13.22%)
Trump: 7,364 (90.21%) Halley: 799 (9.79%)

My 2 cents: I don't see a lot of Biden defections outside the most populous counties. Not so for the other guy. There are counties around Philly where Repubs used to do well where tfg is below 80%. Philly is usually good for 100k republican votes, which is way more than most of the other counties in PA can produce. I doubt tfg is going to get those people to vote for him (they may leave the spot blank if they can't vote Dem).

Yea, tfg will win 75% of the vote in over 50% of the counties but that probably gets him maybe 200k+ votes. tfg can't win if Repubs in the SE and SC parts of the state won't vote for him.

Sorry, I can't see the primary results as being very encouraging for Repub prospects in the Commonwealth. Good night.