Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: I am posting two Electoral College maps;one we win,the other we don't. (poll) [View all]Celerity
(43,758 posts)where he would win in the House, as the Rethugs control 26 (each state gets 1 vote, 26 needed to win the POTUS) state delegations and neither of the 2 close ones they control (FL and WI) are likely to change in 2020 due to RW gerrymandering.
The 2 states he would need to flip are NV and NH, and then to win 270 he needs to win both NE-2 and ME-2. If he loses either (but not both) NE-2 or ME-2, and still wins NV and NH, then it is 269-269 and the House will elect elect him (unless there was a rogue elector either way who did not just vote for someone different, but voted for the opposite candidate). IF we do, by some miracle, flip FL or WI or both, then the Senate would pick the VP, who would become POTUS, and IF the the Senate is also tied 50-50, then the Speaker of the House would become POTUS until the deadlocks are resolved. The 12th Amendment gives the House until the fourth day of March to select a president. The Senate has no time frame for VP.
the article below explains this
https://www.thoughtco.com/when-presidential-election-is-a-tie-3322063
This assumes that the Senate has selected a new vice president. If the Senate has failed to break a 50-50 tie for vice president, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 specifies that the Speaker of the House will serve as acting president until tie votes in both the House and Senate have been broken.
Let us all hope there is NOT a 269-269 ties in ANY (not just the 2 I listed, they are other more likely than those 2 ways to get to 269-269) scenario, as the country will tear itself apart. And lets hope that we win BOTH NV and NH (or one at a bare minimum) so the MI, PA, WI going Blue scenario means we 99% most likely win. The only 3 states I can see even at 5% chance of Rump flipping I have not mentioned are CO, MN, and VA, all highly highly unlikely, especially IF he loses all the others that he needs to even turn one of those 3 into a must win for him. BTW, a NH and NV loss by Rump, but wins NE-2 and ME-2, loses WI, MI, PA, BUT somehow against all odds, flips CO only, is another 269-269 tie nightmare. Either of he other 2 (MN, VA) give him a 270 or more straight win. IF we are talking about Rump winning one of those 3 (CO, MN, VA), that bodes really bad for us, really bad, as in blowout (at least EC wise) bad. I see almost no chance of that atm.
the maps
The only feasible outright win for Trump IF we win WI, PA, MI
and the two 269-269 routes
Wins ME-2, loses NE-2
Wins NE-2, loses ME-2
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden