Reply #56: Thanks for the interesting links [View All]

It's a murky situation. I don't think it's as clear cut as some here and in the media would like it to be. For instance, what can we make of the fact that in the past week alone we've had

- Putin's trip to Germany
- Putin's comments that Yushchenko's first trip will be to Moscow at a press conference last Wednesday
- Russian state media (ORT, etc) obvious switch from promoting Yanukovich to a pro-Yushchenko position

I'd be inclined to think that the election is really more about who gets the lion's share in the wave of privatization that's coming up in Ukraine. Yanukovich had perhaps made promises to Putin and his cohorts among the new business bureaucracy that made Putin look favorably upon his candidacy. Then perhaps assurances were made by Schroeder and the Yushchenko camp that Russian companies will be involved in the upcoming yard sale, and so Putin's pro-Yanukovich stance melted away. European and US interference in the elections likely also had the same motivation - to ensure EU and American companies' participation in the sell-off of Ukrainian national interests. Strategic benefits such as "isolating" Russia or expanding NATO also have a role to play, but not a dominant one, I think.

As an aside, one helpful thing to remember is that Putin is not some kind of latter day Peter the Great. He represents the economic interests of the Russian bureaucratic elite, and is absolutely not concerned about a "Russian geopolitical revival" outside of comments made for the domestic consumption.