Reply #14: Lib Dems 57, Labour 258 [View All]

SDLP 3, Alliance 1, Greens 1, Plaid Cymru 3, SNP 6. The Independent On Sunday article bizarrely suggests bringing in Sylvia Hermon, but she's an Ulster Unionist who disagreed with her party's decision to form a pre-election coalition with the Tories, and left it and retained her seat, but as an independent. Politically, she'd be a very bad fit with Labour or the Lib Dems; she just didn't like to be too close to the Tories in a coalition, and I can't see she'd like being a tiny part of a more left-wing coalition either.

The SDLP and Alliance are fairly certain as partners with Labour and the Lib Dems, and Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, could probably be persuaded to support them in confidence votes, as long as they take green issues seriously (which the Lib Dems would want to anyway). To get a majority (with Sinn Fein not voting, as they never have done) a coalition would at least need the Welsh nationalists too, and probably the Scottish. In some ways that shouldn't be too great a problem, but they'll want to extract as many devolved powers, and as much regional money, as they can, so the bargaining would be tricky.