Reply #2: One conclusion is now almost certain: Gambling interests did it. [View All]

Now that it's clear this was indeed a bullet wound, in both victims, it is also clear that this could NOT have been a Chen stunt.

Further, the careful, fast, pre-planned exit, the relatively skilled shooting, and the manipulation of the bullet--removing some of the charge to reduce the speed and thus the severity of the wound--and the type of bullet used--a jacketed bullet hardened to prevent more severe wound--tells us a great deal. It says the shooter(s) were professional hit men who had carefully planned their assault.

Since there is absolutely no way to guarantee, traveling at 17 mph, that a shot will not grievously injure or kill the target, the idea that Chen would risk his life in such a stunt is preposterous.

However, it's also clear the gunmen did NOT intend to kill Chen. If they did, they would have fired at his head, not at his lower torso. Therefore, they were probably NOT political opponents either.

They clearly wanted a high profile incident which would produce sympathy votes for Chen, but not a murder which would have postponed the election.

In view of the notoriously heavy election gambling in Taiwan, all of these facts point to a racketeering stunt designed to produce a favorable result for Chen and huge winnings for some pretty slimy gamblers. This looks to me like a gamblers hit. Pure and simple.