Reply #52: I share your concerns about his re-election [View All]

however, if the either the fundies or the country-clubber Republicons are heavily disillusioned, they may not turn out in the numbers that the GOP needs, or they may just vote third party as a protest.

If Romney or Huntsman wind up with the nomination, expect the fundies to be completely unenthused. They don't want to give the Mormon missionaries another talking point, it will be bad enough for them that an LDS member went 'mainstream' enough to even be a leading party candidate. They actually would prefer to 'suffer' through a second Obama term, while waiting for someone they can stomach in 2016.

If a true tea partier, like Palin or Bachmann got the nomination, expect the monied interests to be far less than enthusiastic. They'd rather deal with the devil they know (Obama) than watch the Tea Party drag the Republican party completely over the cliff. They also know that their farm teams are producing some superstars for 2016, and there's no sense in derailing true tax cutters that can get something done, rather than pass symbolic legislation on abortion and gay rights that the SCOTUS will overturn, anyway.

On the other hand, if it is a foregone conclusion that Barack Obama will be re-elected, it strengthens the chance that some will vote for a Republican for Congress, as a counterbalance to him for the next four years. If that happens, a second Obama term won't mean too much to us, anyway.