Reply #1: One can argue that a civil war [View All]

is already taking place in Iraq, with the US attacking the Sunni Arabs, as a "player" in that civil war. And there have been reports of Shia militias (at least one, anyway) forming to attack the Sunnis -- but of coordination with US attacks I have heard nothing.

With a civil war being one of the likely outcomes to emerge from our invasion of Iraq, perhaps it has become deliberate policy to align ourselves against the Sunni Arabs in this "war", thereby hoping to avoid (or minimize) difficulties with the Shia (perhaps even to achieve some "cooperation"). (The Kurds were predisposed to side with us in the first place -- and I have heard nothing much to the contrary to date.) And with "their own government" in place, the Shia might be willing to commit themselves more fully to this "civil war", whether or not they do so openly in conjunction with US forces.

However, I am not clear that this will work long term. The Shia might not be content with the "defeat" of the Sunni Arabs and may turn on either the Kurds and/or US forces when (and if) this "defeat" is accomplished. Nor can we necessarily rely on Shia (and Kurdish) forces to (largely) accomplish this objective on their own. Shia-Sunni warfare might also inflame a wider conflict (with unknown results, and these not necessarily in our interest) and perhaps cause a stream of Sunni jihadis to come to Iraq. And should we invade other Islamic countries, all bets may well be off. Moreover, all this says nothing about whether or not the state that emerges in Iraq will be a greater danger to our interests than the one under Saddam was.

If our goal is to divide Iraqis as a means to "subdue" them (with some number in "our camp" -- more or less), then we might have better looked (or look) to using tribal rivalries, rather than ethnic or religious ones, as our "wedge".

Generally, however, I find your analysis into the "thinking" of our "leadership" a good one (any omissions being theirs, not yours)... regardless of why they might be looking to reduce the troop levels committed to Iraq.