Reply #15: Counter Spin: The Spanish election was a huge Al-Qaeda loss [View All]

Here's how it works:

1) We assume al-Qaeda are rational actors. Indeed, the Republican spin assumes just that: Al-Qaeada has a set of strategies and goals, and uses force to implement its goals, based in part on precedent. The assumption here is that all rational actors consider precedent carefully when making decisions (i.e., rely on induction as a form of reasoning about action).

2) All recent precedent has shown that populations of Western/Westernized countries under terrorist threat behave more rather than less conservative. For evidence, we would show the rightward shift in the US immediately following September 11, the pro-government feeling in Australia immediately following the Bali bombings, and the general rightward leaning of the Israeli population as each intifada expanded its scope.

3) If al-Qaeda are rational actors, and precedents point to a rightward shift, then one should assume that the bombings were intended to produce a rightward shift in Spain, turning the PP's victory from slim to huge, thereby radicalizing the Spanish populace and furthering polarizing the EU. In fact, a leftward swing seems stupid given al-Qaeda's objectives of instigating an intensifying conflict between the West and Islam.

4) Therefore, the Spanish people's decision to oust their rightwing government was NOT a vistory for al-Qaeda, but precisely the opposite of what they expected and desired.

QED ;-)