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The likelihood of a global crisis similar to that of 1973 is very high. The precise timing is dependent on the durability of Saudi Arabia's pro-Western stance, and hence on the stability of the current political regime there. This is because Saudi Arabia is pumping more oil than it needs to, in response to Western (mainly US) political pressure (see graph below). In fact, it is highly likely that if Saudi Arabia were to cut its oil output by 20%, it would actually increase revenue from sales, as the resulting supply shortfall would push prices up significantly. This must be very tempting for a country whose debt to income ratio is approximately 2:1. It is highly conceivable that there will be a change of government in Saudi Arabia within 5 years. This will serve to bring forward the onset of a crisis which, as it stands, is coming anyway.
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