Reply #3: Bush's Missing 10.2 Million Jobs [View All]

Employment Picture Still Dreary
Comstock Funds
January 06, 2005

Whatever the December payroll employment report shows tomorrow, it can’t come close to making a dent in the serious jobs shortfall of the current economic expansion. Here’s why. The NBER officially designated November 2001 as the bottom of the last recession, meaning that the November report marked the third anniversary of the upturn. During this 36-month period total non-farm payroll employment increased only 0.9%, a number that pales in comparison to past cycles. Over the last seven economic expansions the average rise for a comparable period was 8.7%. If that were the case on the current cycle there would have been 10.2 million more jobs than the total number reported for November, and the average monthly increase for the 36-month period would have been 316,000 per month. Instead the average monthly rise was a paltry 33,000, and even over the past 12 months when employment picked up somewhat, the average monthly increase came to only 171,000, a far cry from the typical cyclical increase. In fact only three months of the 36 showed increases of more than 300,000 jobs.

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