Reply #33: Hey, I admitted it was unreasonable! [View All]

In an ideal universe of strong organization and unlimited resources, the elderly, infirm and poor should have been calmly evacuated by Friday or Saturday morning. Then all the able-bodied with access to autos could begin their own evacuation.

But who has that kind of money and city resources? No place that I know of. Which is, of course, the Catch-22 of these emergencies. They can't be ordered until the last moment, when there's little or no doubt an area is in danger. And by that point, the evacuation is harder to mount and easier to disrupt.

If all goes well, 24 hours may work. But all it takes are one or two bad accidents on a highway to shut down routes. The "worst case" scenario is what emergency planning is all about.

For what it's worth, I just heard on the news that it's been something like 90 years since there have been 3 major hurricanes in the Gulf in one season. We're returning to the monster storm activity of the late 1800s and early 1900s. And those storms hit when there was only a fraction of the population and urban development along the coastal regions. So this time around we're more vulnerable.

Which means dozens of mayors are going to face this crisis every year. And face the balancing act of acting too soon versus too late. I don't envy them that judgment call.