Reply #2: we mustn't be too fixated by polls [View All]

The general trend is downward. Nothing has changes. Gallup is notorious for putting out polls that are pro-Bush. Even the CBS poll is within the margin of their last poll. Nothing has changed.

Something else to consider.

George H. W. Bush had a 65% approval rating at this same time (1991) in the 1992 election cycle. His numbers continued to fall until they hit 28% in the fall of 1992.

These polls mean nothing.

Clinton trailed Bush until the Democratic convention when he got a 26% bounce.

He was actually in third place - behind Bush Sr. and Perot - in the Spring of 1992. Only months before the general election. There was talk of the Democratic Party being destroyed in the general election.

The consensus in 1991-1992 was that Clinton "could not win." The media pundits ALL SAID that Clinton didn't stand a chance.

He won. Convincingly. Had it not been for Perot, he would have won by 12% (according to non-partisan research group, mentioned in George Stephanopolis' book). Instead he won by 6%.

These polls mean nothing.

There was one poll by CBS that I found interesting. 32% said they would definitely vote for Bush. 27% said they would definitely vote for the Democrat. And 41% said they wanted to hear more before making up their minds. That says a lot.