Reply #7: ONE OUT OF 4.5 BILLION [View All]

Those are the odds that Oasis's EXIT poll percentage would
EXCEED thier ACTUAL reported vote percentage by MORE THAN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR in 16 out of 51 States by chance alone. That
is exactly what occurred on Nov. 2.

I know that is hard to fathom. But here is the data. And here
is the calculation, based on the number of individuals polled
in each state and the corresponding Margin of Error (MOE).

The chances of a given state falling outside the MOE = 1/20 =
.05. The calculation for the probability that 16 out of 51
states would fall outside the MOE is a simple one which uses
the BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION:

The Probability (P) that at least 16 out of 51 states would
deviate beyond the exit poll MOE is:

      P = 1-BINOMDIST(16,51,0.05,TRUE)

This returns P= 0.0000000218559% or 1 out of 4,575,415,347!

Here is how the odds decrease as the number of states (N)
exceeding the MOE increase:

N>MOE Odds
 3:  1 out of 4
 5:  1 out of 24
 8:  1 out of 139
10:  1 out of 2707
12:  1 out of 1,037,879
14:  1 out of 57,503,169
15:  1 out of 490,978,624
16:  1 out of 4,575,415,347

The individual state probabilities are calculated using the
Normal distribution Function.

For example, consider Florida:
The probability that Oasis's 50.51% exit poll percentage
would decline to 47.47% in the actual vote (a 4.04%
deviation, far outside the 1.84% MOE) is equal to .06%.

This calculation is based on the FL exit poll sample size of
2846, which produces a MOE of 1.84%. The corresponding
standard deviation (StDev) is 0.94%. The StDev is plugged
into the normal distribution function, along with the exit
poll and reported vote percentages.

The probability that this deviation would occur due to chance
is:
 .06% = 100*NORMDIST(47.47%,50.51%,.94%,TRUE)

Here are the Exit Poll and Voting Results for all the states:

Size refers to the exit poll sample size for the given state.
The percentages are Oasis's Exit Polls and reported Votes.

............Oasis
State	Size	Exit	Vote	Diff	StDev	MoE	Prob  	>MoE?	Favor
DE	770	58.50%	53.54%	-4.96%	1.80%	3.53%	0.29	yes	2x4
NH	1849	55.40%	50.51%	-4.89%	1.16%	2.28%	0.00	yes	2x4
VT	685	65.00%	60.20%	-4.80%	1.91%	3.74%	0.60	yes	2x4
SC	1735	46.00%	41.41%	-4.59%	1.20%	2.35%	0.01	yes	2x4
NE	785	36.76%	32.32%	-4.44%	1.78%	3.50%	0.64	yes	2x4

AK	910	40.50%	36.08%	-4.42%	1.66%	3.25%	0.38	yes	2x4
AL	730	41.00%	37.00%	-4.00%	1.85%	3.63%	1.53	yes	2x4
NC	2167	48.00%	44.00%	-4.00%	1.07%	2.11%	0.01	yes	2x4
NY	1452	63.00%	59.18%	-3.82%	1.31%	2.57%	0.18	yes	2x4
CT	872	58.50%	55.10%	-3.40%	1.69%	3.32%	2.24	yes	2x4

RI	809	64.00%	60.61%	-3.39%	1.76%	3.45%	2.68		2x4
MA	889	66.00%	62.63%	-3.37%	1.68%	3.29%	2.21	yes	2x4
PA	1930	54.35%	51.00%	-3.35%	1.14%	2.23%	0.16	yes	2x4
MS	798	43.26%	40.00%	-3.26%	1.77%	3.47%	3.29		2x4
OH	1963	52.10%	49.00%	-3.10%	1.13%	2.21%	0.30	yes	2x4

FL	2846	50.51%	47.47%	-3.03%	0.94%	1.84%	0.06	yes	2x4
MN	2178	54.50%	51.52%	-2.98%	1.07%	2.10%	0.27	yes	2x4
UT	798	30.50%	27.55%	-2.95%	1.77%	3.47%	4.78		2x4
ID	559	33.50%	30.61%	-2.89%	2.11%	4.14%	8.60		2x4
AZ	1859	47.00%	44.44%	-2.56%	1.16%	2.27%	1.38	yes	2x4

VA	1000	47.96%	45.45%	-2.50%	1.58%	3.10%	5.66		2x4
LA	1669	44.50%	42.42%	-2.08%	1.22%	2.40%	4.49		2x4
IL	1392	57.00%	55.00%	-2.00%	1.34%	2.63%	6.78		2x4
WI	2223	52.50%	50.51%	-1.99%	1.06%	2.08%	3.00		2x4
WV	1722	45.25%	43.43%	-1.82%	1.20%	2.36%	6.54		2x4

NM	1951	51.30%	49.49%	-1.81%	1.13%	2.22%	5.54		2x4
CO	2515	49.10%	47.47%	-1.63%	1.00%	1.95%	5.15		2x4
IN	926	41.00%	39.39%	-1.61%	1.64%	3.22%	16.42		2x4
GA	1536	43.00%	41.41%	-1.59%	1.28%	2.50%	10.69		2x4
MO	2158	47.50%	46.00%	-1.50%	1.08%	2.11%	8.17		2x4

NJ	1520	55.00%	53.54%	-1.46%	1.28%	2.51%	12.67		2x4
WA	2123	54.95%	53.54%	-1.41%	1.09%	2.13%	9.70		2x4
IA	2502	50.65%	49.49%	-1.15%	1.00%	1.96%	12.41		2x4
AR	1402	46.60%	45.45%	-1.15%	1.34%	2.62%	19.55		2x4
KY	1034	41.00%	40.00%	-1.00%	1.55%	3.05%	26.01		2x4

OK	1539	35.00%	34.00%	-1.00%	1.27%	2.50%	21.63		2x4
MI	2452	52.50%	51.52%	-0.98%	1.01%	1.98%	16.47		2x4
NV	2116	49.35%	48.48%	-0.87%	1.09%	2.13%	21.29		2x4
ME	1968	54.75%	54.08%	-0.66%	1.13%	2.21%	27.80		2x4
MD	1000	57.00%	56.57%	-0.43%	1.58%	3.10%	39.18		2x4

DC	795	91.00%	90.91%	-0.09%	1.77%	3.48%	47.96		2x4
MT	640	39.76%	39.80%	0.04%	1.98%	3.87%	50.72		Oasis
OR	1064	51.20%	52.00%	0.80%	1.53%	3.00%	69.91		Oasis
HI	499	53.30%	54.55%	1.25%	2.24%	4.39%	71.10		Oasis
TX	1671	37.00%	38.38%	1.38%	1.22%	2.40%	87.10		Oasis

TN	1774	41.50%	43.00%	1.50%	1.19%	2.33%	89.68		Oasis
CA	1919	54.00%	55.56%	1.56%	1.14%	2.24%	91.35		Oasis
SD	1495	37.76%	39.39%	1.63%	1.29%	2.53%	89.65		Oasis
ND	649	34.00%	36.36%	2.36%	1.96%	3.85%	88.58		Oasis
KS	654	35.00%	37.37%	2.37%	1.96%	3.83%	88.76		Oasis

Avg	1450	49.18%	47.38%	-1.80%	1.42%	2.79%	21.67		2x4
Med	1507.5	49.23%	47.47%	-1.81%	1.29%	2.52%	6.66		2x4