Reply #1: Vilsack is one smart politician, and has been on the money MANY times [View All]

In calling election results well before the events actually occur.

Remember, in Augist 1991, BIll CLinton was at 2 percent in the Iowa polls as well as being at or near the bottom of many other polls. A recent Wall Street Journal article point out that while Dean is an outsider, as many other Governors who won the presidency were, all Dean is riding on now is his stance on Iraq, which was nothing prophetic, adn as a matter of fact, is the exact opposite position of the one that Bill Clinton took over a year before the elections. Clinton ignored the war and stuck to the economy, and it propelled him into the WHite House. Iraq is a one trick pony approach, and it is all Dean has, as his record in Vermont is mediocre at best, extrememly conservative, and he did relatively little to improve the state or its economy or the status of its middle class...

The Dean base largely is what pollster Stan Greenberg calls
the "secular warriors" -- largely white, middle- to upper-middle
class, non-church going, non gun-owning voters. With his singular --
among major candidates -- opposition to the Iraq war, he became the
favorite of more Democrats who intensely dislike and mistrust George
W. Bush, dating back to the 2000 election controversy. Dean campaign
chief Joe Trippi argues his camp's growing band of supporters are not
only anti-Bush and anti-war, and anti-Washington insider, but are
willing, even eager, to make sacrifices for a greater good.

But there is more than a little peril to being elevated so soon. "All
the other Democrats have a common agenda: Stop Howard Dean," notes
Mr. Trippi. The Jimmy Carters and George McGoverns had a year to hone
their messages, see what worked and what didn't, with little
scrutiny. Dr. Dean now is being held to a higher performance
standard; witness the celebrated grilling he got a few weeks ago on
Meet The Press from Tim Russert. (The candidate thinks that was a
good experience and the campaign raised about ten times more money on
that day than it usually does on Sundays.)

But the Dean demeanor will be scrutinized in the months ahead. He's
prone to bouts of petulance -- as governor, he would veto bills
because he was mad at the legislature -- stubbornness, and a penchant
for petty or abrasive comments. Even his followers reacted negatively
when he attacked John Kerry during a South Carolina debate. This week
he charged Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt had "disrespected" the
NAACP merely for not showing up at its conference in Miami.

For the party, the biggest concern ironically could be the issue that
propelled Dr. Dean into the limelight -- Iraq -- although he looks
pretty prescient today. The Sept. 11 terrorism revived the Cold War
criterion that a presidential candidate must be competitive on the
national security issue; that wasn't the case after the Berlin Wall
fell, as Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both defeated candidates
with better credentials.

http://www.michiganfordean.com/news/wsj_071703.htm