Reply #12: About as close as a lack of oil and water [View All]

Global food production is primarily based on two resources: oil and water. The future supply of both is precarious.

Agriculture across most of the world has undergone a tremendous consolidation. Far fewer farms and farmers. Workers have been replaced with machines. Most all production is specialized and product is routinely transported thousands of miles. We all enjoy tremendous variety at still reasonable cost though it often doesn't seem that way after a trip through the checkout counter.

Logically the present system cannot sustain itself. It is simply too resource intensive. I'm not sure that it'll just collapse (barring some kind of bizarre climate event) but food will become more and more expensive and the present system will someday clearly seem like folly.

So what will happen?

Cuba may provide us with a shining example of what to do. When the Soviet Union collapsed, so did the heavily-subsidized, oil-dependent Cuban agricultural system. The small farm has made a remarkable comeback. Significant production comes from city farmers. They've come to rely on experience and organics as opposed to oil-based fertilizers, pesticides and machinery.

If you have local farms, buy their products. Maybe there's a farmers market nearby. Some areas have co-ops. If you're really ambitious, plow up the lawn and plant some veggies. I always say I'm going to do it, but never follow through. It is a lot of work, but I'm sure very rewarding.

If there truly is a catastrophic collapse, then you're likely screwed along with most of the rest of us. Society will turn very ugly, very quickly and your garden, and probably your home, will be ransacked. Months of canned food might not do you much good.