Reply #5: No increase in cyclone frequency seems reasonable, but there is evidence for increased intensity [View All]

Trends in U.S. hurricane intensity
* Elsner, J B
jelsner@fsu.edu
Florida State University, Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32301

Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average with a 30-year trend that is related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic and elsewhere. However, the subset of U.S. land falling show no trend in the frequency of hurricanes over the past 150 years. Here we show marginally significant increases in the intensity of the strongest land affecting hurricanes as the Atlantic sea-surface temperature warms. Confounding simple trend analysis is the presence of El Nino and the North Atlantic oscillation.

3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
4546 Nearshore processes
Atmospheric Sciences
2008 Fall Meeting
http://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/SFgate/SFgate?&listenv=table&multiple=1&range=1&directget=1&application=fm08&database=%2Fdata%2Fepubs%2Fwais%2Findexes%2Ffm08%2Ffm08&maxhits=200&=%22A52C%22