|
Edited on Wed Apr-21-10 03:44 PM by Statistical
Not true. If the goal is to expand peak power substantially then yes it will however if the goal is to replace existing fossil fuel plants with nuclear it will not. To the grid there is no difference between a 2 GW coal plant sitting on 10 acres of land and connected by HVDC and a 2 GW nuclear plant sitting on 10 acres of and connected by HVDC.
The govt IS promotion renewable energy. There is a massive (and completely unsustainable) $20+ per MWh credit. That is 30% to 40% of wholesale power rate in this country. It would be like the govt giving GM a $10,000 per car subsidy and then saying the govt isn't promoting car ownership. If anything that subsidy and support will have to decline as capacity increases (Germany cut subidies on solar by 38% for 2010).
Even with this massive support and subsidies corporations will not risk being the one with too much capacity for the market to handle. Wind will grow however it won't be at the pace you predict. The WIND LOBBY optimistic projections is 20% of global capacity in 2030. The "moderate" (realistic) projection is about 12%. The US govt projection is only 8%.
As far as other renewable. Solar is about 4-5 years from even getting to 1% of global electricity. That is even with 50% annually growth without slowing. So solar will grow but it won't even reach parity with wind for a decade. Solar is today where wind was in 2000. It roughly takes 100 GW of solar to equal just 1% of annual consumption (capacity installs in 2009 were 7.3 GW, max production is 9.4GW). Once again even the solar industry isn't projecting the kind of growth you are imagining.
Nobody is saying we shouldn't support wind, solar, and other renewable energies however it doesn't take a rocket scientists to look at the growth trend and see relying on them only will take 50 years just to get to 50% of global capacity.
Your projections are so far out of left field they are laughable: The analogy would be Tiger woods says he will shoot 270 in the Masters. All the Golf experts having an opinions in the ballpark of 260 to 280. Then kris comes along with a cheerleader fantasy like he will shoot a 9. Only to get mad when people point out that is impossible in Golf :rofl:
|