Reply #37: The perception of a looming crash is entirely a psychological reaction. [View All]

The conviction that a crash must result is purely a result of the commentator's fears. It's an internally generated worldview, springing (as far as I can tell) from the ego's fear of annihilation. It's usually dressed up with analysis to make it appear more rational, but at its core it is nothing but an expression of fear.

That's not to say that the possibility that growth will cease or a decline will set in are unrealistic, but expecting a "crash" is both unwarranted and psychologically counter-productive. It can bring on a toxic combination of depression, despair and paralysis - one of the unhealthiest states imaginable - without offering any way out for either civilization or the individual. It's sort of like a low-level fugue state. I'm intimately familiar with this state, because I fell down that rabbit-hole about six years ago, and only started to climb out in the last couple of years. Anyone who reads my web-site articles about energy and population from 2007 and 2008 will see this process on display.

I still think we're headed for a series of unexpected events as oil supplies begin to wind down, but a global crash of civilization is not in the cards as far as I'm concerned. A long, slow, painful and bumpy decline is entirely possible, but mud huts on Wall Street in five years is not.