Reply #7: He has a certain point of view, not all of which I share, however ... [View All]

He makes sound points about issues that ought to be considered carefully, for example that diplomacy ought not be "faith based". Sound strategy is not arrived at by blinkered deduction from dogmatic principles. One might as well roll dice.

Dramatic peace breakthroughs are not the norm, they are the exception, the norm is various degrees of festering antagonism, based on real grievances, in the context of long term trends which occasionally force dramatic change. The desire to instigate and participate in gratifying political dramas does not of itself lead to effective change.

He does well too to point out the self-interested incompetence of the political leadership on both sides. The current stalemate will continue while that lack of political will and legitimacy persists, until at some point the pressure of long-term trends becomes too great to ignore, initiating a crisis.

The recent decline in US prestige and power under Bushite rule is a critical point as well, and those of us that pointed out that it would be the likely result of impetuous Bushite wars of choice take some satisfaction in having tried to warn about it.

He ignores, however, the recent erosion of the positions of both sides in the dispute, nor does he address the question of how current trends might develop in the future, he appears to see the situation as static and stable, or at least he does not speculate much about future changes. For his purposes, that might have seemed the best choice. I suppose it is uncomfortable to examine candidly how the current situation came to be, what sort of change it represents relative to ten or thirty years ago, and where it is likely to go in the future. It is not a pretty picture, and when you put it in the context global issues it is even less so.

I will state that I think the present situation is very unstable, and likely to disintegrate further along one or more of several perverse and related trends: overpopulation, ecological decay and insufficiency, economic resource strangulation.