Reply #28: Other things being equal, McCain represents their best chance. [View All]

He's conservative, has a good war record, and would probably keep the red states red: I think he'd do well in the South, and he'd certainly do well in the Plains, and Southwest -- his home base. But he'll be 72. And he hasn't looked so hot lately. I think age might work against him some.


The Dems have gotten beat by the narrowest of margins twice swimming against the tide. In 2000, Gore was running after the Dems held the White House two terms in a row. Historically, that favors the out of power party. And this time, Kerry lost against an incumbent -- again, swimming against the tide. This time, the Democrats will have the advantage. I think a guy who can cast himself as a reformer, someone like Chuck Hagel, would be dangerous, because he can almost run against Bush as well as Democrats could, trying to nullify the out-of-power advantage the Dems have. He's delivered some nice zingers against Bush, and could run as a real conservative. He'd kill throughout the midwest, and Iowa neighbors his home state of Nebraska, which would likely take it out of play. He would probably do well in Minnesota, as well. And he's consevative enough for the South.

All the other candidates (except Rudy) would be trying to win with the Bush electoral map and under the Bush aegis. Hagel would be the outsider. I think that makes him the most dangerous of the lot. Whether he can win the nomination against Frist, Rudy and McCain is a different story.

Rudy is a wild card. Would he hold the South? He almost guarantees New York flips, Pennsylvania becomes even shakier, and he puts a lot of other states in play because he's a moderate, but against the right candidate the South could fall away. Plus I'm not sure the country is ready to see President Skeletor on their TV screen every night.