Reply #7: Wait a few weeks [View All]

Mid-winter is never a good time for politicians, and if this winter is even a little chilly, Bush's positive numbers will be down around the Farenheit temperatures.

Not only will fuel prices hit him, but also these scandals where the main action is being put off until after the Holiday hubbubs. Heating programs have been decimated, the survivors of Katrina are going to be down hard on their luck, the Iraqi insurgency is going to fight the fledgeling democracy tooth-and-nail, and having half of one's private political staff under indictment will turn Bush's life into a very unpleasant experience, indeed.

That "new low" will probably be around 15%, around mid-April. The summer rebound may take him all the way back to 40%, but only if all those indictments are dismissed. I think that Team Bush is going to be in the position Gorbachev and Yeltsin found themselves in at the ends of their own terms -- only Bush is evil, where Gorby and Yeltsin were simply not able to stop the cynicism of the Soviet/Russian people.

--p!