FreepNationalReview predicts: March to the Senate (state by state) [View All]

Almost flat ass laughable!

As we head into spring, this year's Senate races come into sharper focus. Democrats need to gain six seats to secure control of the chamber — a tall order, even as they stand poised for a good fall. Here's a quick tour of nearly two dozen contests, updating a report from January.

ARIZONA: Before it's over, developer Jim Pederson, a Democrat who once headed the state party, will spend a bundle to defeat Republican senator Jon Kyl. A Pederson upset is not inconceivable, but it will take an outstandingly good year for Democrats nationally as well as some serious mistakes by the incumbent. A January poll put Kyl well ahead of his rival, 55 percent to 26 percent. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION

FLORIDA: Defying speculation that she would end her Senate candidacy — and the hope among some Washington Republicans that she actually would quit — GOP congresswoman Katherine Harris personally pledged $10 million to her campaign against Democratic senator Bill Nelson. The move certainly demonstrated her seriousness, but it may ultimately backfire by reminding voters that she's rich enough to burn cash on politics and by dissuading potential donors from writing checks because they think she doesn't need extra help. The most likely effect probably will be to keep other Republicans, such as Pittsburgh Steelers scion Tom Rooney, out of the GOP primary. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

MARYLAND: Lt. Gov. Michael Steele may win the sympathy vote: He's been smeared as a race traitor on the grounds that blacks have no business running as Republicans, and now comes the news that federal prosecutors have reached a plea agreement with a former Democratic opposition researcher who illegally obtained Steele's credit report. Even so, Steele remains an underdog in this contest. The Democratic field is crowded, with congressman Ben Cardin and former NAACP head Kweisi Mfume as mostly likely to capture the nomination. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

MICHIGAN: Republicans appear to be settling on Oakland County sheriff Michael Bouchard as their candidate, though his late entry into the race means that he faces a potentially competitive primary against preacher Keith Butler and conservative activist Jerry Zandstra. Many primary voters remain undecided, and Butler particularly should not be dismissed. A recent GOP poll gave Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow a comfortable but not insurmountable lead over Bouchard, 48 percent to 37 percent, plus bigger leads over both Butler and Zandstra. It remains to be seen whether this photo will hurt Stabenow. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

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