Reply #8: I would not say ... [View All]

that the Ds have the "advantage" ...

But, as noted the Rs do NOT have the advantage they had in 2004 ... People were still willing to be bent over by 9-11 ... They still could scare the beejesus out of the sheep with the "them terrorists will kill us all if the Ds are elected" ... AND, the Iraq occupation was only a year and a half in ... It looked like they are losing the grip on it, no doubt, but it still was a reasonable compelling "arguement" to not want to change power at that point, to give them a shot to get it right ...

They do NOT have any of that ... They have CLEARLY showed they have screwed Iraq up royal, and people are starting to wear thin on the whole they are doing to die from them there terrorists thing ... That card is near burnt out, this guys having applied it to EVERYTHING ...

Now, if there is some sort of terrorist act in the month or two prior ... MAYBE that paralyszes the sheep again, but even that is risky ... If it would not come just prior to the election, after the initial shock, people are going to really say to themselves, if it happens, we have been bent over backwards for 5 freakin years now, all in the sake of these clowns keeping us safe, and they can't even do that ...

Add in that the Rs domestic tax and hope for the best agenda has been exposed ... They have only one thing ... Immigration ...

I think that is a real thorn in the Ds side the closer to the Mexican border you get ... Frankly, for all the analyzing of it, that was the difference in the Cali 50 election ... If that district had been 200 miles north, it would have been a complete toss up ... Had it been in Oregon, that D would have won ...

Also, agree ... The redistricting makes it VERY tough ... Historically 17 seats would not be a major hurdle, but today ... AND, with the Rs VERY capable of controlling the election process from registration to actual vote counting, and knowing how to do so strategically ...

I had lowered my expectations ... Especially in the House ... I don't think it even if 50/5o that they get control of the house ...