Reply #45: This would be my order [View All]

* New Mexico - it probably voted for Kerry in '04, even in an election Bush won nationally by more than 2.5 points, minus the machine screwups that eliminated thousands of votes

* Iowa - a state we narrowly lost to an incumbent but by less than the national margin, so the partisan index remains on our side; '08 figures to tilt generically our way nationwide, so that yanks Iowa

* Ohio - definitely wants to trend our way, but that can be ruined via an unfavorable general election matchup. Still a more conservative state than people want to believe, on the federal level

* Nevada - slight blue partisan index in '04 (state popular vote percentage compared to national margin). That means we can probably carry Nevada if we win the national popular vote. Still, the Democratic base in Clark County is not as reliable as the cow counties or red northern Nevada. And the Hispanic numbers are not showing up at the polls; too many are not citizens or not yet 18.

* Florida - too much pessimism here. It leans only about 1.5 to 2 points red, which can easily be overcome. Problem is the state economy has been very good compared to the rest of the nation, which provides a benefit of a doubt to the ruling party, which has been the GOP in the White House and Florida gov mansion

* Colorado - huge move our way from '00 to '04, shifting from about 9 points GOP-leaning in the partisan index to only a few. Looks like the trend has continued but I'll have to see a presidential result before I'm overly confident

* Virginia - steady blue move in the northern counties. State is starting to be comfortable voting for Democrats. But Virginia still figures to be about 3-4 points red at base instinct in '08. It will take either a substantial nationwide Democratic popular vote victory, or a favorite son like Mark Warner in the VP slot, to swing the state our way

* Missouri - I'm not as confident as others here. Percentage of self-identified conservatives is high, 37% in the '06 exit poll. That is the single best guideline to judge how likely a state is to switch partisanship. Gore and Kerry lost every state with at least 35% self-identifed conservatives

* Arkansas - See Missouri, only worse. Very, very high percentage of self-identified conservatives, in the 40% range. We would need to carry the national popular vote by high margin, probably 4% or greater, to sway Arkansas.

* West Virginia - the local voting patterns and party ID numbers still favor Democrats, but self-identified conservatives are suddenly high in number. I don't see this state returning to our fold any time soon. If it does it's irrelevant since it means we are carrying the country by landslide