Reply #12: Perhaps. People forget he rode a wave of non-stop positive press for 3 years [View All]

Ever since the summer of 2004 Obama received nothing but glowing press. Until last week. Now that the press if given him normal coverage, assuming it continues, he may become the Democratic version of Ghouliani (who rode 6 years of glowing press to a commanding lead in national polls until a few months ago. He has fallen badly since his high perch of 44%). The latest Gallup poll saw him go from a 1 point national lead 2 weeks prior to a 12 point deficit. He remains mired in 3rd in Iowa, his neighboring state which also overlaps media markets with Illinois, and looks to be on his way to 3rd or even 4th (Richardson, who is surging, is only 10 points behind Obama) in Nevada. SC is his saving grace right now but it is hard to see him winning SC if he finishes 3rd in Iowa, 3rd or 4th in NV, and 3rd in NH (a 3rd in Iowa would doom him to 3rd in NH imo).

People fail to realize how image dependent Obama is. He was in the 20's in the polls before he even said a single word about what he would do as president. One poll had him in the 20's as early as November of 06'. If the image is tarnished, the candidate crumbles. Few people are voting for him based on issues or the record. That makes his support the most fluid. He is sitting on top of a house of cards.