Reply #18: Polls that include Gore, also,remove him and the other/don't know # remains virtually unchanged. [View All]

"The mistake you are making is considering Al Gore an actual candidate instead of combining those numbers into OTHER where they belong."

See subject line. Because those firms also poll without including Gore we have some idea who the 2nd choice is. It basically splits off boosting each of the candidates (Hillary with a possible slight advantage) and the not sure numbers are about the same.

Also in polling not including Gore at all, the unsures are around 10% or lower.

"In 08, it is EXACTLY the same."

We both made mistakes with absolute statements.

"In reality, 2008 is tracking 2004 quite well and the numbers prove that out very nicely."

Except it isn't. Name recog for the big 3 is much higher and the polling has been much more stable all summer. Both the 1st and 2nd place candidates in polling this summer have been attracting far greater percentages than in 2004. Edwards' percentage in 3rd place tops some poll leaders from 2004.

Again this doesn't not mean Hillary will be the nominee simply that 2008 is not 2004.