Reply #18: I only use RCP for their poll compilations. But you're right I should take the article apart. [View All]

Edwards is not the Democrat's best chance.

His poll standing won't last long when he goes 3 months from nomination to convention unarmed because of his acceptance of public financing.

I have said this dozens of times but polls are a snapshot of public opinion now.

If the race is hardly inevitable with a 20 pt lead by Clinton, why does an advantage of 5 pts more in national heats make Edwards the best candidate?

Other problems with the article include

"Clinton's problem is that, according to some polls, Rudy Giuliani is currently running even or only slightly behind her in New Jersey, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania - up-for-grabs states Clinton has to sweep in order to win. Given his current showing, it's likely Giuliani will win some of those contests in November 2008 and deny Clinton a majority."


What the author apparently does not realize is Edwards is losing to Rudy in quite a few of states he mentions Hillary having a slight lead in(forget about competitive, he's losing big in some of these states),

Using SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac:

NJ - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1106

In FL, http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1104

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=13940d24-fd93-4086-8874-693723634885&q=42720

in NY(slight edge to Rudy), - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1108

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=a664ac38-9086-4716-ac4b-474af4d78468&q=42720

in PA, (slight edge to Rudy) - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1095

Both Edwards and Clinton kick Rudy's ass in OH in Q poll (SurveyUSA has both losing by a single pt to Rudy) - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1102

So basically the author is claiming that Hillary won't be able to hold on to these states but Edwards will while picking up swing states and he is doing so based on assumption since Hillary is outperforming Edwards head to head in the states he mentioned as critical. A Rudy candidacy puts NY in play with everyone but Hillary and in NJ she's the only one close to him. For all of Edwards southern appeal he puts much of the NorthEast in play and therefore will have to spend money and time there making his ability to make inroads in the south all the more difficult.