Reply #14: Sure. A long shot, but not utterly *impossible* [View All]

Biden's problem is that he has what may be the largest gender gap in political history. (The last I saw, 8:1 male/female) So when women peel off Obama, Biden needs to get them. Hard to see how... so he would want female Obama support to go to Edwards because Obama is too conservative (as he has to be to chase Clinton). Edwards should have some potential for women to switch to him... he's 2:1 male, which is kind of counter-intuitive.

Fortunately for Biden, he would be acceptable to a lot of Clinton supporters.

Obama has too much of the progressive vote, and Edwards not as much as he should.

So for Biden to win, Clinton would have to do something so bad people were desperate for an alternative, and Edwards would have to poach some votes from Obama. Hard to imagine Biden cracking 25% in Iowa in any scenario, so he'd need something tightly clustered, like Biden 25%, Clinton 24%, Edwards 19%, Obama 18%